As of Oct 20, 2026, 1:03 AM ET, Polymarket priced this market at 0.4% (little changed over 24 hours). It had $76.5K traded in the past 24 hours, $220.1K of order-book liquidity and a bid-ask spread of 0.1 pts. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as strong.
Deep, easy-to-trade market, traded by a small group of accounts.
Source: Polymarket price history
Is the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing is supported by healthy trading volume and market depth, a tight spread.
Has the market settled at the new probability?
The probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.
Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?
The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.
How hard is it to move this price?
Order-book liquidity
$220.1K
Bid-ask spread
0.1 pts
24h volume
$76.5K
Total volume
$1M
It would take roughly $3.8K of buying to move the price up by ~5 pts.
Lots of money on the book and a tight spread — a single ordinary order can't move this price much.
Whose opinion is this price?
Accounts
129
Trades
200
over 5 days
Largest order
$493.1
$1.9K traded across these 200 trades (last 5 days).
A small group of accounts did most of the trading — neither one whale nor a broad crowd.
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of the United States, any member of the Cabinet of the United States, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of the United States, any member of the Cabinet of the United States, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 20, 1:14 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
The same event, priced across deadline contracts on this venue.
Extending the deadline from Oct 31 to Dec 31 adds about 3.8 percentage points of implied probability.
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: high · expected error ±8 pts.
Liquid, two-sided, and calm. The current price reads as settled consensus — the latest print is a reasonable summary of what the market believes.
The latest price is a usable but caveated read — weigh it with the market state.
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
Secondary read: leaning toward Quote-driven.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.