As of Oct 26, 2026, 9:31 PM ET, Polymarket priced this market at 10.5% (down from 12.5% 24 hours earlier). It had $55.9K traded in the past 24 hours, $79.7K of order-book liquidity and a bid-ask spread of 1.0 pts. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as strong.
Deep, easy-to-trade market — but today's move came mostly from one account.
Source: Polymarket price history
Is the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing is supported by healthy trading volume and market depth, a tight spread.
Has the market settled at the new probability?
Movement has slowed (2 points over six hours) but the market has not fully settled.
Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?
The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.
How hard is it to move this price?
Order-book liquidity
$79.7K
Bid-ask spread
1.0 pts
24h volume
$55.9K
Total volume
$173.6K
Lots of money on the book and a tight spread — a single ordinary order can't move this price much.
Whose opinion is this price?
Accounts
72
Trades
200
over 2 days
Largest order
$2.2K
$8.3K traded across these 200 trades (last 2 days).
One account did most of the recent trading — the price reflects that account's view more than a crowd's.
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Arizona gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Arizona gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 26, 9:39 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: high · expected error ±15 pts.
Recent movement was driven largely by one participant with little broad follow-through. The move may not represent consensus.
Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
Secondary read: leaning toward Trading normally.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.