Market capacity
How hard is it to move this price?
Deep
Order-book liquidity
$102.6K
Bid-ask spread
0.0 pts
24h volume
$117.6K
Total volume
$125.2K
Lots of money on the book and a tight spread — a single ordinary order can't move this price much.
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on November 4?
As of Nov 4, 2026, 9:26 AM ET, Polymarket priced this market at 0.1% (little changed over 24 hours). It had $117.6K traded in the past 24 hours and $102.6K of order-book liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as strong.
Market probability
0.1%
Little changed over 24 hours
Resolving soon
Deep, easy-to-trade market; the price has held steady over 24 hours.
Price historyPolymarket
Source: Polymarket price history
How credible was the move?
Methodology →Move validity
StrongIs the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing is supported by healthy trading volume and market depth.
Consensus stability
StableHas the market settled at the new probability?
The probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.
Contract clarity
HighWill the rules resolve without ambiguity?
The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
Can you trust this price?
Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.
Who's trading
Whose opinion is this price?
Participation data isn't captured for this market yet.
Participation data isn't captured for this market yet, so we can't say how many accounts set this price.
What this market actually measures
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT closing at 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT closing at 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.
Resolution source: binance.com
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesNovember 4, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
- Confirmation at the resolution source (binance.com)
The rules name this source as the basis for settlement.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Nov 4, 9:26 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: high · expected error ±11 pts.
Resolving soonLegacy movement classifier: watch
What's happening
high classifier confidence
Resolving soon
Near resolution or with ambiguous wording, pricing is mechanically thin and can swing on tiny trades. Read end-of-life prices with extra caution.
- Resolves in 0 day(s) — end-of-life pricing is mechanically thin
Read with caution —The latest price is a usable but caveated read — weigh it with the market state.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
45Medium
Where the price path tends to go next321 observed
- Stable consensus97%
- Trend continuation3%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
DurabilityHigh· half-life ~4w
PredictabilityStable
Secondary read: leaning toward Trading normally.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Change (pts)1H0.06H0.024H0.07D0.0
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