As of Oct 11, 2026, 11:57 PM ET, Polymarket priced this market at 2.8% (little changed over 24 hours). It had $111.3 traded in the past 24 hours, $56.4K of order-book liquidity and a bid-ask spread of 0.1 pts. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as moderate.
Thin market where small orders can move the price, traded by a small group of accounts.
Source: Polymarket price history
Is the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing has partial support: healthy trading volume and market depth, a tight spread.
Has the market settled at the new probability?
The probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.
Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?
The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.
How hard is it to move this price?
Order-book liquidity
$56.4K
Bid-ask spread
0.1 pts
24h volume
$111.3
Total volume
$55.2K
It would take roughly $1.1K of buying to move the price up by ~5 pts.
Little money on the book — a modest order can move this price, so treat swings with care.
Whose opinion is this price?
Accounts
98
Trades
199
over 248 days
Largest order
$714.4
$4.2K traded across these 199 trades (last 248 days).
A small group of accounts did most of the trading — neither one whale nor a broad crowd.
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-23 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-23 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Resolution source: fec.gov
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
The rules name this source as the basis for settlement.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 12, 12:25 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±15 pts.
Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.
Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
Secondary read: leaning toward Stale price.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
24h volume
$111.3
Liquidity
$56.4K
Total volume
$55.2K