As of Oct 30, 2026, 4:44 PM ET, Polymarket priced this market at 62.5% (down from 74.0% 24 hours earlier). It had $52.9K traded in the past 24 hours, $199.2 of order-book liquidity and a bid-ask spread of 7.0 pts. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as weak.
Thin market where small orders can move the price — but today's move came mostly from one account.
Source: Polymarket price history
Is the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing has weak support: moderate trading volume, an unusually wide spread.
Has the market settled at the new probability?
The probability moved another 2 points in the past hour — the market is still repricing.
Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?
The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.
How hard is it to move this price?
Order-book liquidity
$199.2
Bid-ask spread
7.0 pts
24h volume
$52.9K
Total volume
$54.4K
It would take roughly $30.6 of buying to move the price up by ~5 pts.
Little money on the book — a modest order can move this price, so treat swings with care.
Whose opinion is this price?
Accounts
17
Trades
63
over 8 days
Largest order
$7.2K
$38.7K traded across these 63 trades (last 8 days).
One account did most of the recent trading — the price reflects that account's view more than a crowd's.
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for all days in the specified period. If data is not available for all days in the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time. The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
Resolution source: home.treasury.gov
The probability fell 11.5 percentage points over the last 24 hours (74.0% → 62.5%).
No verified catalyst has been linked to this move yet. ProbCast does not attribute moves to news without evidence connecting the timing of a specific report to the repricing.
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
The rules name this source as the basis for settlement.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 30, 4:58 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±34 pts.
The price is actively repricing on real volume. The number is still moving — don't treat the latest print as settled consensus yet.
Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
Secondary read: leaning toward One big trader.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.