As of Oct 17, 2026, 3:57 AM ET, Polymarket priced this market at 19.5% (down from 26.5% 24 hours earlier). It had $28.9K traded in the past 24 hours, $17K of order-book liquidity and a bid-ask spread of 1.0 pts. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as weak.
Thin market where small orders can move the price — and today's move was spread across many accounts.
Source: Polymarket price history
Is the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing has weak support: healthy trading volume and market depth, a tight spread.
Has the market settled at the new probability?
Movement has slowed (7 points over six hours) but the market has not fully settled.
Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?
The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.
How hard is it to move this price?
Order-book liquidity
$17K
Bid-ask spread
1.0 pts
24h volume
$28.9K
Total volume
$28.9K
It would take roughly $149.5 of buying to move the price up by ~5 pts.
Little money on the book — a modest order can move this price, so treat swings with care.
Whose opinion is this price?
Accounts
57
Trades
183
over 12h
Largest order
$1.1K
$4.5K traded across these 183 trades (last 12h).
Many independent accounts traded — the price reflects a crowd, not one trader.
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
This market will resolve according to the next individual who the White House announces has been picked to be the White House Press Secretary who replaces Katie Zacharia by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. A person being announced as an acting or interim holder of the position will not count for purposes of this market.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
This market will resolve according to the next individual who the White House announces has been picked to be the White House Press Secretary who replaces Katie Zacharia by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. A person being announced as an acting or interim holder of the position will not count for purposes of this market. In the event that no individual is chosen to replace Katie Zacharia, or the role is abolished, by December 31, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". Once a qualifying announcement has occurred, subsequent withdrawals or replacement announcements will not affect resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the White House and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The probability fell 7.0 percentage points over the last 24 hours (26.5% → 19.5%).
No verified catalyst has been linked to this move yet. ProbCast does not attribute moves to news without evidence connecting the timing of a specific report to the repricing.
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 17, 3:58 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±29 pts.
The price is actively repricing on real volume. The number is still moving — don't treat the latest print as settled consensus yet.
Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
Secondary read: leaning toward Thin market.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.