Market capacity
How hard is it to move this price?
ThinTight spread
Order-book liquidity
$208K
Bid-ask spread
0.5 pts
24h volume
$45.6K
Total volume
$45.6K
Little money on the book — a modest order can move this price, so treat swings with care.
Will Natacha Polony win the 2027 French presidential election?
As of Oct 19, 2026, 10:43 PM ET, Polymarket priced this market at 0.4% (little changed over 24 hours). It had $45.6K traded in the past 24 hours, $208K of order-book liquidity and a bid-ask spread of 0.5 pts. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as moderate.
Market probability
0.4%
Little changed over 24 hours
Thin market where small orders can move the price — though most recent trading came from one account.
Price historyPolymarket
Source: Polymarket price history
How credible was the move?
Methodology →Move validity
ModerateIs the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing has partial support: healthy trading volume and market depth, a tight spread.
Consensus stability
StableHas the market settled at the new probability?
The probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.
Contract clarity
HighWill the rules resolve without ambiguity?
The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
Can you trust this price?
Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.
Who's trading
Whose opinion is this price?
One account dominates
74%of the traded money came from the single largest account
Accounts
5
Trades
9
over 9h
Largest order
$75.8
$118.2 traded across these 9 trades (last 9h).
One account did most of the recent trading — the price reflects that account's view more than a crowd's.
Recent trade activity$118.2 traded
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesApril 18, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 19, 10:57 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±13 pts.
Quote-drivenLegacy movement classifier: watch
What's happening
high classifier confidence
Quote-driven
A tight, deep, quote-driven book with little executed flow. The price is stable but reflects resting quotes more than active trading.
- Tight spread on a liquid, calm market
- Little executed flow — price is quote-driven, not trade-driven
The latest price is a dependable read of consensus.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
68High
Where the price path tends to go next1518 observed
- Choppy / mean-reverting98%
- Stable consensus1%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
DurabilityHigh· half-life ~4w
PredictabilityStable
Secondary read: leaning toward Trading normally.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Change (pts)1H0.06H0.024H0.07D0.0