Market capacity
How hard is it to move this price?
ThinTight spread
Order-book liquidity
$59.1K
Bid-ask spread
2.0 pts
24h volume
$44.8K
Total volume
$156K
Little money on the book — a modest order can move this price, so treat swings with care.
Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
As of Oct 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ET, Polymarket priced this market at 20.0% (up from 18.5% 24 hours earlier). It had $44.8K traded in the past 24 hours, $59.1K of order-book liquidity and a bid-ask spread of 2.0 pts. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as moderate.
Market probability
20.0%
+1.5 percentage points
over 24 hours18.5% → 20.0%
Thin market where small orders can move the price, traded by a small group of accounts.
Price historyPolymarket
Source: Polymarket price history
How credible was the move?
Methodology →Move validity
ModerateIs the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing has partial support: healthy trading volume and market depth, a tight spread.
Consensus stability
FormingHas the market settled at the new probability?
Movement has slowed (1.5 points over six hours) but the market has not fully settled.
Contract clarity
HighWill the rules resolve without ambiguity?
The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
Can you trust this price?
Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.
Who's trading
Whose opinion is this price?
A few accounts
45%of the traded money came from the single largest account
Accounts
103
Trades
200
over 3 days
Largest order
$2.7K
$13.3K traded across these 200 trades (last 3 days).
A small group of accounts did most of the trading — neither one whale nor a broad crowd.
Recent trade activity$13.3K traded
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Likud party in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Likud party in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election. If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted. If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the Likud party in this election. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
Resolution source: gov.il
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesOctober 27, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
- Confirmation at the resolution source (gov.il)
The rules name this source as the basis for settlement.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 19, 8:23 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±17 pts.
Thin marketLegacy movement classifier: watch
What's happening
medium classifier confidence
Thin market
Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.
- Thin book and/or wide spread.
Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
34Low
Where the price path tends to go next1572 observed
- Choppy / mean-reverting97%
- Stable consensus2%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
DurabilityHigh· half-life ~5h
PredictabilityStable
Secondary read: leaning toward Trading normally.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Change (pts)1H0.06H+1.524H+1.57D+1.5