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Currently 21% YES, flat over 24h — ProbCast reads this as a watch-level move on mixed conditions (Trust 55/100).
Moved up 0.5 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.
The price hasn't updated recently and volume is light, so it may not yet reflect the latest information. Treat the latest print as possibly lagging, not settled.
Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
Secondary read: leaning toward Quote-driven.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Only Polymarket has this matched event in the current feed
STALE_PRICEStale priceDepth of the order book and volume
Mixed support. Interpret with some caution. Main caveat: stale price.
Low resolution risk, driven mainly by no resolution source.
How clear the contract wording is — separate from whether the price is trustworthy.
ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice. Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.