Will Gilad Erdan be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
Source: Polymarket price history
The event deadline has passed. This market is awaiting formal resolution, so the price shown is the last traded level, not a live forecast.
- Last probability before deadline
- 0.1%
- Event deadline
- October 27, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET
- Venue status
- open
ProbCast Reliability Summary
Will Gilad Erdan be the next Prime Minister of Israel? The last traded Polymarket probability before the deadline was 0.1%. The event deadline has passed. This market is awaiting formal resolution, so the price shown is the last traded level, not a live forecast.
- Market data as of
- October 28, 2026 at 4:07 PM ET
- ProbCast assessment generated
- October 28, 2026 at 4:09 PM ET
- Source
- Polymarket
- Event deadline
- October 27, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET
- Market status
- Awaiting resolution
- Data updated
- 2m ago
What this market actually measures
Legislative elections are schedule to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 parliamentary election.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Legislative elections are schedule to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 parliamentary election. If an election is called early, this market will immediately resolve to the individual who is officially appointed and sworn in after that election. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.