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Currently 19% YES, up 2.0 pts over 24h — ProbCast reads this as a meaningful, liquidity-backed move (Trust 70/100).
Moved up 2.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
Near resolution or with ambiguous wording, pricing is mechanically thin and can swing on tiny trades. Read end-of-life prices with extra caution.
Read with caution —The latest price is a usable but caveated read — weigh it with the market state.
Only Polymarket has this matched event in the current feed
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
Secondary read: leaning toward Trading normally.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
EXPIRING_SOONResolving soonMagnitude of recent probability change
Depth of the order book and volume
Reasonably supported. Generally reliable, with minor caveats. Main caveat: expiring soon.
Low resolution risk: clear source, threshold, and deadline leave little room for ambiguity.
How clear the contract wording is — separate from whether the price is trustworthy.
ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice. Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.
ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice. ProbCast is not a betting platform, exchange, or broker and does not provide buy or sell recommendations. Intended for users 18+; availability of prediction-market activity varies by jurisdiction. Venue data is aggregated from third parties and may be delayed or inaccurate. See our Terms of Use.
Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.
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