Market capacity
How hard is it to move this price?
ThinTight spread
Order-book liquidity
$15K
Bid-ask spread
0.1 pts
24h volume
$33.7K
Total volume
$35.6K
Little money on the book — a modest order can move this price, so treat swings with care.
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from October 12 to October 14, 2026?
As of Oct 12, 2026, 11:02 PM ET, Polymarket priced this market at 0.4% (down from 8.5% 24 hours earlier). It had $33.7K traded in the past 24 hours, $15K of order-book liquidity and a bid-ask spread of 0.1 pts. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as weak.
Market probability
0.4%
−8 percentage points
over 24 hours8.5% → 0.4%
Moving fastBig move, weak backingResolving soon
Thin market where small orders can move the price — and today's move was spread across many accounts.
Price historyPolymarket
Source: Polymarket price history
How credible was the move?
Methodology →Move validity
WeakIs the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing has weak support: healthy trading volume and market depth, a tight spread.
Consensus stability
FormingHas the market settled at the new probability?
Movement has slowed (8 points over six hours) but the market has not fully settled.
Contract clarity
HighWill the rules resolve without ambiguity?
The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
Can you trust this price?
Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.
Who's trading
Whose opinion is this price?
Broad participation
15%of the traded money came from the single largest account
Accounts
104
Trades
198
over 2 days
Largest order
$307.6
$2.1K traded across these 198 trades (last 2 days).
Many independent accounts traded — the price reflects a crowd, not one trader.
Recent trade activity$2.1K traded
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from October 12 12:00 PM ET to October 14, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from October 12 12:00 PM ET to October 14, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Resolution source: x.com
Why the odds moved
The probability fell 8.0 percentage points over the last 24 hours (8.5% → 0.5%).
No verified catalyst has been linked to this move yet. ProbCast does not attribute moves to news without evidence connecting the timing of a specific report to the repricing.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesOctober 14, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
- Confirmation at the resolution source (x.com)
The rules name this source as the basis for settlement.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 12, 11:08 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±27 pts.
Reacting to newsLegacy movement classifier: noisy
What's happening
high classifier confidence
Reacting to news
The price is actively repricing on real volume. The number is still moving — don't treat the latest print as settled consensus yet.
- Probability moved 8.0 pts in ≤6h on adequate liquidity
The latest price is a usable but caveated read — weigh it with the market state.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
46Medium
Where the price path tends to go next53 observed
- Thin-liquidity spike83%
- Choppy / mean-reverting9%
- Trend continuation4%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
DurabilityHigh· half-life <1h
PredictabilityStable
Secondary read: leaning toward Thin market.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Change (pts)1H-0.46H-8.024H-8.07D-8.0
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