Market capacity
How hard is it to move this price?
ThinTight spread
Order-book liquidity
$21.5K
Bid-ask spread
0.3 pts
24h volume
$28.2K
Total volume
$76.1K
Little money on the book — a modest order can move this price, so treat swings with care.
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026?
As of Oct 13, 2026, 4:58 AM ET, Polymarket priced this market at 0.5% (down from 3.4% 24 hours earlier). It had $28.2K traded in the past 24 hours, $21.5K of order-book liquidity and a bid-ask spread of 0.3 pts. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as moderate.
Market probability
0.5%
−2.9 percentage points
over 24 hours3.4% → 0.5%
Resolving soon
Thin market where small orders can move the price — and today's move was spread across many accounts.
Price historyPolymarket
Source: Polymarket price history
How credible was the move?
Methodology →Move validity
ModerateIs the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing has partial support: healthy trading volume and market depth, a tight spread.
Consensus stability
StableHas the market settled at the new probability?
The probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.
Contract clarity
HighWill the rules resolve without ambiguity?
The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
Can you trust this price?
Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.
Who's trading
Whose opinion is this price?
Broad participation
17%of the traded money came from the single largest account
Accounts
45
Trades
200
over 44h
Largest order
$94.3
$560.1 traded across these 200 trades (last 44h).
Many independent accounts traded — the price reflects a crowd, not one trader.
Recent trade activity$560.1 traded
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from October 9 12:00 PM ET to October 16, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from October 9 12:00 PM ET to October 16, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Resolution source: x.com
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesOctober 16, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
- Confirmation at the resolution source (x.com)
The rules name this source as the basis for settlement.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 13, 5:10 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±17 pts.
Thin marketLegacy movement classifier: watch
What's happening
medium classifier confidence
Thin market
Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.
- Thin book and/or wide spread.
Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
36Low
Where the price path tends to go next1124 observed
- Choppy / mean-reverting98%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
DurabilityHigh· half-life ~12h
PredictabilityStable
Secondary read: leaning toward Trading normally.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Change (pts)1H0.06H-0.924H-2.97D-2.9
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