Market capacity
How hard is it to move this price?
ThinTight spread
Order-book liquidity
$23.1K
Bid-ask spread
0.1 pts
24h volume
$243.9K
Total volume
$247.7K
Little money on the book — a modest order can move this price, so treat swings with care.
Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $50M?
As of Oct 30, 2026, 12:44 PM ET, Polymarket priced this market at 100.0% (up from 66.0% 24 hours earlier). It had $243.9K traded in the past 24 hours, $23.1K of order-book liquidity and a bid-ask spread of 0.1 pts. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as weak.
Market probability
100.0%
+34 percentage points
over 24 hours66.0% → 100.0%
Moving fastBig move, weak backingResolving soon
Thin market where small orders can move the price — and today's move was spread across many accounts.
Price historyPolymarket
Source: Polymarket price history
How credible was the move?
Methodology →Move validity
WeakIs the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing has weak support: healthy trading volume and market depth, a tight spread.
Consensus stability
UnsettledHas the market settled at the new probability?
The probability moved another 14 points in the past hour — the market is still repricing.
Contract clarity
HighWill the rules resolve without ambiguity?
The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
Can you trust this price?
Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.
Who's trading
Whose opinion is this price?
Broad participation
13%of the traded money came from the single largest account
Accounts
110
Trades
200
over 56 min
Largest order
$8.6K
$73.1K traded across these 200 trades (last 56 min).
Many independent accounts traded — the price reflects a crowd, not one trader.
Recent trade activity$73.1K traded
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
This market will resolve to "Yes" if total commitments to the official 1W public sale exceed the specified value at any point before November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if total commitments to the official 1W public sale exceed the specified value at any point before November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the headline pool total displayed on the official 1W Token Sale page at https://1wtoken.com/ (the "US$[amount] of US$[allocation]" figure). Total commitments refers to this gross pool amount, including any oversubscription above the sale's allocation, and not the final allocated amount after excess deposits are refunded. If the sale page displays only a net or allocated figure rather than the gross pool amount, official announcements of the gross amount from 1W will be used. The sale accepts deposits in US dollar stablecoins (USDC), which are counted as US dollars at 1:1. If the displayed figure exceeds the specified value at any point before November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of subsequent refunds or cancellations. A displayed figure exactly equal to the specified value will not qualify. If the figure on the sale page is unavailable, official announcements from 1W (https://x.com/1winToken) may be used; if no official figure is available, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. If no commitment total is verifiable by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, including because the sale is put on hold, cancelled, or rescheduled to a time past that date, this market will resolve to "No". If requisite information for this market's resolution becomes permanently unavailable within this market's timeframe, this market will resolve to "No". If the sale is extended before the official closing time, commitments made during the extended period will count toward resolution, provided the displayed figure exceeds the specified value before November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Resolution source: 1wtoken.com
Why the odds moved
The probability rose 34.0 percentage points over the last 24 hours (66.0% → 100.0%).
No verified catalyst has been linked to this move yet. ProbCast does not attribute moves to news without evidence connecting the timing of a specific report to the repricing.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesNovember 2, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
- Confirmation at the resolution source (1wtoken.com)
The rules name this source as the basis for settlement.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 30, 12:55 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±29 pts.
Reacting to newsLegacy movement classifier: noisy
What's happening
high classifier confidence
Reacting to news
The price is actively repricing on real volume. The number is still moving — don't treat the latest print as settled consensus yet.
- Probability moved 34.0 pts in ≤6h on adequate liquidity
Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
22Low
Where the price path tends to go next74 observed
- Thin-liquidity spike75%
- Choppy / mean-reverting15%
- News repricing4%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
DurabilityMedium· half-life <1h
PredictabilityElevated irreducibility
Secondary read: leaning toward Trending.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Change (pts)1H+14.06H+34.024H+34.07D+34.0
Related markets
Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $40M?
100%YESTrust 52
Polymarket$294.8K 24h
Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $60M?
100%YESTrust 9
Polymarket$391.3K 24h
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
96%YESTrust 85
Polymarket$55.6K 24h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?
24%YESTrust 76
Polymarket$357.9K 24h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?
75%YESTrust 70
Polymarket$230.4K 24h
Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by >25bps at their December 2026 meeting?
3%YESTrust 60
Kalshi$808.6 24h