As of Oct 13, 2026, 12:08 AM ET, Polymarket priced this market at 4.5% (down from 12.0% 24 hours earlier). It had $27.6K traded in the past 24 hours, $43.4K of order-book liquidity and a bid-ask spread of 1.0 pts. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as weak.
Thin market where small orders can move the price — today's move came from a small group of accounts.
Source: Polymarket price history
Is the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing has weak support: healthy trading volume and market depth, a tight spread.
Has the market settled at the new probability?
The probability moved another 1 point in the past hour — the market is still repricing.
Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?
The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.
How hard is it to move this price?
Order-book liquidity
$43.4K
Bid-ask spread
1.0 pts
24h volume
$27.6K
Total volume
$27.6K
It would take roughly $1K of buying to move the price up by ~5 pts.
Little money on the book — a modest order can move this price, so treat swings with care.
Whose opinion is this price?
Accounts
80
Trades
115
over 22h
Largest order
$933.5
$2.5K traded across these 115 trades (last 22h).
A small group of accounts did most of the trading — neither one whale nor a broad crowd.
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) during the date range specified in the title (from 12:00 AM ET on the first date to 11:59 PM ET on the last) has a final "Low" price equal to or lower than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Low" pri…
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) during the date range specified in the title (from 12:00 AM ET on the first date to 11:59 PM ET on the last) has a final "Low" price equal to or lower than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Low" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
Resolution source: binance.com
The probability fell 7.5 percentage points over the last 24 hours (12.0% → 4.5%).
No verified catalyst has been linked to this move yet. ProbCast does not attribute moves to news without evidence connecting the timing of a specific report to the repricing.
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
The rules name this source as the basis for settlement.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 13, 12:16 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±27 pts.
The price is actively repricing on real volume. The number is still moving — don't treat the latest print as settled consensus yet.
The latest price is a usable but caveated read — weigh it with the market state.
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
Secondary read: leaning toward Thin market.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.