Market capacity
How hard is it to move this price?
Thin
Order-book liquidity
$168.1K
Bid-ask spread
0.0 pts
24h volume
$48.8K
Total volume
$2.5M
Little money on the book — a modest order can move this price, so treat swings with care.
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election?
As of Oct 29, 2026, 10:07 AM ET, Polymarket priced this market at 0.1% (little changed over 24 hours). It had $48.8K traded in the past 24 hours and $168.1K of order-book liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as moderate.
Market probability
0.1%
Little changed over 24 hours
Thin market where small orders can move the price; the price has held steady over 24 hours.
Price historyPolymarket
Source: Polymarket price history
How credible was the move?
Methodology →Move validity
ModerateIs the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing has partial support: healthy trading volume and market depth.
Consensus stability
StableHas the market settled at the new probability?
The probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.
Contract clarity
HighWill the rules resolve without ambiguity?
The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
Can you trust this price?
Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.
Who's trading
Whose opinion is this price?
Participation data isn't captured for this market yet.
Participation data isn't captured for this market yet, so we can't say how many accounts set this price.
What this market actually measures
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
Resolution source: interieur.gouv.fr
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesApril 18, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
- Confirmation at the resolution source (interieur.gouv.fr)
The rules name this source as the basis for settlement.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 29, 10:13 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±11 pts.
Trading normallyLegacy movement classifier: watch
What's happening
medium classifier confidence
Trading normally
Liquid, two-sided, and calm. The current price reads as settled consensus — the latest print is a reasonable summary of what the market believes.
- Liquid, two-sided, and calm — price behaving as settled consensus
The latest price is a usable but caveated read — weigh it with the market state.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
52Medium
Where the price path tends to go next1323 observed
- Choppy / mean-reverting97%
- Stable consensus1%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
DurabilityHigh· half-life ~4w
PredictabilityStable
Secondary read: leaning toward Quote-driven.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Change (pts)1H0.06H0.024H0.07D0.0