Will Anna-Karin Hatt be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?
As of Sep 29, 2026, 5:23 AM ET, Polymarket priced this market at 0.1% (little changed over 24 hours). It had $171.3K traded in the past 24 hours and $15.7K of order-book liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as moderate.
No meaningful repricing — the probability is steady.
The pricing has partial support: healthy trading volume and market depth.
How credible was the move?
Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →
Move validity
Is the move backed by real trading and depth?
ModerateThe pricing has partial support: healthy trading volume and market depth.
Consensus stability
Has the market settled at the new probability?
StableThe probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.
Contract clarity
Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?
HighThe resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and assumes office as Prime Minister of Sweden following the next parliamentary election.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and assumes office as Prime Minister of Sweden following the next parliamentary election. To count for resolution, the individual must officially assume office. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister assumes office by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Sweden; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesJune 30, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Sep 29, 5:33 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±14 pts.
What's happening
A tight, deep, quote-driven book with little executed flow. The price is stable but reflects resting quotes more than active trading.
- Tight spread on a liquid, calm market
The latest price is a usable but caveated read — weigh it with the market state.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
- Choppy / mean-reverting93%
- Thin-liquidity spike3%
- Stable consensus3%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
Secondary read: leaning toward Thin market.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Market data
24h volume
$171.3K
Liquidity
$15.7K
Total volume
$307.8K
- Category
- Geopolitics
- Venue
- Polymarket
- Open interest
- —
- Spread
- 0.0 pts
- Best bid
- 0.1%
- Best ask
- 0.2%
- 7-day range
- 0.1% – 0.3%
- Resolves
- Jun 30, 2027