Market capacity
How hard is it to move this price?
Deep
Order-book liquidity
$2.3M
Bid-ask spread
0.0 pts
24h volume
$304.1K
Total volume
$49.3M
Lots of money on the book and a tight spread — a single ordinary order can't move this price much.
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
As of Oct 31, 2026, 8:07 PM ET, Polymarket priced this market at 0.1% (little changed over 24 hours). It had $304.1K traded in the past 24 hours and $2.3M of order-book liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as strong.
Market probability
0.1%
Little changed over 24 hours
Deep, easy-to-trade market, with broad trading across many accounts.
Price historyPolymarket
Source: Polymarket price history
How credible was the move?
Methodology →Move validity
StrongIs the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing is supported by healthy trading volume and market depth.
Consensus stability
StableHas the market settled at the new probability?
The probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.
Contract clarity
HighWill the rules resolve without ambiguity?
The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
Can you trust this price?
Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.
Who's trading
Whose opinion is this price?
Broad participation
16%of the traded money came from the single largest account
Accounts
89
Trades
200
over 39 days
Largest order
$88
$542.8 traded across these 200 trades (last 39 days).
Many independent accounts traded — the price reflects a crowd, not one trader.
Recent trade activity$542.8 traded
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesNovember 7, 2028 at 11:59 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 31, 8:13 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: high · expected error ±6 pts.
Trading normallyLegacy movement classifier: watch
What's happening
medium classifier confidence
Trading normally
Liquid, two-sided, and calm. The current price reads as settled consensus — the latest print is a reasonable summary of what the market believes.
- Liquid, two-sided, and calm — price behaving as settled consensus
The latest price is a dependable read of consensus.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
69High
Where the price path tends to go next541 observed
- Stable consensus97%
- Choppy / mean-reverting2%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
DurabilityHigh· half-life ~4w
PredictabilityStable
Secondary read: leaning toward Quote-driven.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Change (pts)1H0.06H0.024H0.07D0.0