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Currently 4% YES, flat over 24h — ProbCast reads this as a watch-level move on mixed conditions (Trust 78/100).
Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.
A tight, deep, quote-driven book with little executed flow. The price is stable but reflects resting quotes more than active trading.
Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
Secondary read: leaning toward Trading normally.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Only Polymarket has this matched event in the current feed
Depth of the order book and volume
Reasonably supported. Generally reliable, with minor caveats. Main caveat: limited history.
Moderate resolution risk, driven mainly by no resolution source.
How clear the contract wording is — separate from whether the price is trustworthy.
ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice. Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.