Market capacity
How hard is it to move this price?
ThinTight spread
Order-book liquidity
$37.9K
Bid-ask spread
1.8 pts
24h volume
$49.9K
Total volume
$481.1K
Little money on the book — a modest order can move this price, so treat swings with care.
Predict.fun FDV above $600M one day after launch?
As of Oct 29, 2026, 10:57 AM ET, Polymarket priced this market at 93.1% (down from 93.9% 24 hours earlier). It had $49.9K traded in the past 24 hours, $37.9K of order-book liquidity and a bid-ask spread of 1.8 pts. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as moderate.
Market probability
93.1%
−0.8 percentage points
over 24 hours93.9% → 93.1%
Thin market where small orders can move the price, with broad trading across many accounts.
Price historyPolymarket
Source: Polymarket price history
How credible was the move?
Methodology →Move validity
ModerateIs the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing has partial support: healthy trading volume and market depth, a tight spread.
Consensus stability
FormingHas the market settled at the new probability?
Movement has slowed (0.8 points over six hours) but the market has not fully settled.
Contract clarity
HighWill the rules resolve without ambiguity?
The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
Can you trust this price?
Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.
Who's trading
Whose opinion is this price?
Broad participation
23%of the traded money came from the single largest account
Accounts
93
Trades
200
over 8 days
Largest order
$20.8K
$95.6K traded across these 200 trades (last 8 days).
Many independent accounts traded — the price reflects a crowd, not one trader.
Recent trade activity$95.6K traded
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Predict.fun's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Predict.fun's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Predict.fun (https://predict.fun/) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Resolution source: predict.fun
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesJanuary 1, 2028 at 12:00 AM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
- Confirmation at the resolution source (predict.fun)
The rules name this source as the basis for settlement.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 29, 11:02 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±17 pts.
Thin marketLegacy movement classifier: watch
What's happening
medium classifier confidence
Thin market
Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.
- Thin book and/or wide spread.
Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
37Low
Where the price path tends to go next1318 observed
- Choppy / mean-reverting97%
- Stable consensus2%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
DurabilityHigh· half-life ~11h
PredictabilityStable
Secondary read: leaning toward Trading normally.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Change (pts)1H-0.76H-0.824H-0.87D-0.8
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