Market capacity
How hard is it to move this price?
ThinTight spread
Order-book liquidity
$48.5K
Bid-ask spread
0.1 pts
24h volume
$26.5K
Total volume
$59.3K
Little money on the book — a modest order can move this price, so treat swings with care.
Kimberly Guilfoyle out as U.S. Ambassador to Greece by December 31?
As of Oct 13, 2026, 1:43 PM ET, Polymarket priced this market at 100.0% (up from 98.6% 24 hours earlier). It had $26.5K traded in the past 24 hours, $48.5K of order-book liquidity and a bid-ask spread of 0.1 pts. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as moderate.
Market probability
100.0%
+1.4 percentage points
over 24 hours98.6% → 100.0%
Thin market where small orders can move the price, traded by a small group of accounts.
Price historyPolymarket
Source: Polymarket price history
How credible was the move?
Methodology →Move validity
ModerateIs the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing has partial support: healthy trading volume and market depth, a tight spread.
Consensus stability
StableHas the market settled at the new probability?
The probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.
Contract clarity
HighWill the rules resolve without ambiguity?
The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
Can you trust this price?
Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.
Who's trading
Whose opinion is this price?
A few accounts
34%of the traded money came from the single largest account
Accounts
97
Trades
200
over 4 days
Largest order
$9K
$29.5K traded across these 200 trades (last 4 days).
A small group of accounts did most of the trading — neither one whale nor a broad crowd.
Recent trade activity$29.5K traded
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Kimberly Guilfoyle ceases to be U.S. Ambassador to Greece for any period of time between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Kimberly Guilfoyle ceases to be U.S. Ambassador to Greece for any period of time between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Kimberly Guilfoyle's resignation/removal by this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Kimberly Guilfoyle and the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesDecember 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 13, 1:54 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Probability by deadline
The same event, priced across deadline contracts on this venue.
- By Oct 31100.0%
- By Dec 31 (this market)100.0%
The market prices the Oct 31 and Dec 31 deadlines almost identically.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±16 pts.
Thin marketLegacy movement classifier: watch
What's happening
medium classifier confidence
Thin market
Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.
- Thin book and/or wide spread.
Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
35Low
Where the price path tends to go next1200 observed
- Choppy / mean-reverting96%
- Stable consensus1%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
DurabilityHigh· half-life ~4h
PredictabilityStable
Secondary read: leaning toward Trading normally.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Change (pts)1H0.06H+1.424H+1.47D+1.4
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