Market capacity
How hard is it to move this price?
Thin
Pool liquidity
100 mana
Bid-ask spread
n/a
automated market maker
24h volume
51 mana
Total volume
62.9 mana
Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.
Will Zach Lahn win Iowa governor 2026 election?
As of Oct 11, 2026, 7:25 PM ET, Manifold priced this market at 17.9% (down from 23.2% 24 hours earlier). It had 51 mana traded in the past 24 hours and 100 mana of pool liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as weak.
Market probability
17.9%
−5.3 percentage points
over 24 hours23.2% → 17.9%
Big move, weak backing
Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — thin market where small orders can move the price — today's move came from a small group of accounts.
Price historyManifold
Source: Manifold price history
How credible was the move?
Methodology →Move validity
WeakIs the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing has weak support: moderate trading volume.
Consensus stability
FormingHas the market settled at the new probability?
Movement has slowed (5.3 points over six hours) but the market has not fully settled.
Contract clarity
HighWill the rules resolve without ambiguity?
The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
Can you trust this price?
Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.
Who's trading
Whose opinion is this price?
A few accounts
37%of the traded money came from the single largest account
Accounts
6
Trades
10
over 4 days
Largest order
10 mana
27 mana traded across these 10 trades (last 4 days).
A small group of accounts did most of the trading — neither one whale nor a broad crowd.
Recent trade activity$27 traded
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
Resolution criteria This market will resolve to YES if Zach Lahn wins the Iowa gubernatorial election held on November 3, 2026. The market will resolve to NO if any other candidate is declared the winner, or if Zach Lahn does not appear on the ballot/withdraws prior to the election.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Resolution criteria This market will resolve to YES if Zach Lahn wins the Iowa gubernatorial election held on November 3, 2026. The market will resolve to NO if any other candidate is declared the winner, or if Zach Lahn does not appear on the ballot/withdraws prior to the election. Sources of Truth: Resolution will be based on the official certified election results published by the Iowa Secretary of State. Prior to official certification, the market may resolve if a consensus projection is reached by major national news outlets, such as the Associated Press (AP) Decision Desk. If the election results are legally contested or subject to a mandatory recount, resolution will be delayed until the official, final certified results are published or the concession of the opposing candidate makes the outcome clear. Background The 2026 Iowa gubernatorial election is an open-seat race, as incumbent Republican Governor Kim Reynolds is not seeking a third term. Businessman and farmer Zach Lahn secured the Republican nomination on June 2, 2026, in an upset primary victory over Trump-endorsed U.S. Representative Randy Feenstra. Lahn is running on an "Iowa First" platform. He faces Democratic nominee Rob Sand, the current Iowa State Auditor, in the general election.
Why the odds moved
The probability fell 5.3 percentage points over the last 24 hours (23.2% → 17.9%).
No verified catalyst has been linked to this move yet. ProbCast does not attribute moves to news without evidence connecting the timing of a specific report to the repricing.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesNovember 3, 2026 at 6:00 AM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 11, 7:32 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±26 pts.
Reacting to newsLegacy movement classifier: noisy
What's happening
medium classifier confidence
Reacting to news
The price is actively repricing on real volume. The number is still moving — don't treat the latest print as settled consensus yet.
- Probability moved 5.3 pts in ≤6h on adequate liquidity
Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
23Low
Where the price path tends to go next1018 observed
- Illiquid / quiet99%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
DurabilityHigh· half-life ~7h
PredictabilityStable
Secondary read: leaning toward Thin market.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Market data
24h volume
51 mana
Liquidity
100 mana
Total volume
62.9 mana
- Category
- Politics
- Venue
- Manifold
- Open interest
- —
- Current probability
- 17.9%
- 7-day range
- 17.9% – 23.2%
- Resolves
- Nov 3, 2026
Change (pts)1H0.06H-5.324H-5.37D-5.3