Market capacity
How hard is it to move this price?
Thin
Pool liquidity
100 mana
Bid-ask spread
n/a
automated market maker
24h volume
84.3 mana
Total volume
84.3 mana
Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.
Will working be necessary in 2070?
As of Oct 22, 2026, 10:52 PM ET, Manifold priced this market at 28.6% (little changed over 24 hours). It had 84.3 mana traded in the past 24 hours and 100 mana of pool liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as moderate.
Market probability
28.6%
Little changed over 24 hours
Not live — snapshot Oct 22, 10:52 PM ET
Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — thin market where small orders can move the price — though most recent trading came from one account.
Price historyManifold
Source: Manifold price history
How credible was the move?
Methodology →Move validity
ModerateIs the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing has partial support: moderate trading volume.
Consensus stability
StableHas the market settled at the new probability?
The probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.
Contract clarity
HighWill the rules resolve without ambiguity?
The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
Can you trust this price?
Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.
Who's trading
Whose opinion is this price?
One account dominates
64%of the traded money came from the single largest account
Accounts
2
Trades
22
over 8h
Largest order
30 mana
84.3 mana traded across these 22 trades (last 8h).
One account did most of the recent trading — the price reflects that account's view more than a crowd's.
Recent trade activity$84.3 traded
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
Will a typical biological American citizen be required to work in order to live comfortably in 2070? Comfortably defined as subjectively equivalent to the standard of living of the median American in 2023.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Will a typical biological American citizen be required to work in order to live comfortably in 2070? Comfortably defined as subjectively equivalent to the standard of living of the median American in 2023. Resolves ambiguously is the US does not exist at time of resolution. Resolution note: This market resolves identically to the corresponding source market, including N/A or partial resolutions. Any first-person language refers to that market's creator, not this market's creator.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesJanuary 1, 2070 at 3:00 AM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 22, 11:36 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±16 pts.
Thin marketLegacy movement classifier: watch
What's happening
low classifier confidence
Thin market
Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.
- Thin book and/or wide spread.
Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
17Low
Where the price path tends to go next489 observed
- Illiquid / quiet98%
- Choppy / mean-reverting1%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
DurabilityHigh· half-life —
PredictabilityStable
Secondary read: leaning toward Stale price.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Change (pts)1H0.06H0.024H0.07D0.0