ManifoldPlay moneyOtherDevelopingUpdated 8m ago

Will we "lose public key cryptography" by EoY 2028?

As of Oct 11, 2026, 4:25 PM ET, Manifold priced this market at 8.4% (little changed over 24 hours). It had 34.6 mana traded in the past 24 hours and 1K mana of pool liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as moderate.

Market probability
8.4%
Little changed over 24 hours

Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — thin market where small orders can move the price, with broad trading across many accounts.

Price historyManifold

Source: Manifold price history

How credible was the move?

Methodology →

Move validity

Moderate

Consensus stability

Stable

Contract clarity

High

Can you trust this price?

Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.

Market capacity

How hard is it to move this price?

Thin

Pool liquidity

1K mana

Bid-ask spread

n/a

automated market maker

24h volume

34.6 mana

Total volume

5.9K mana

Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.

Who's trading

Whose opinion is this price?

Broad participation
18%of the traded money came from the single largest account

Accounts

57

Trades

91

over 3 days

Largest order

1K mana

5.6K mana traded across these 91 trades (last 3 days).

Many independent accounts traded — the price reflects a crowd, not one bettor.

Recent trade activity$5.6K traded

From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.

What this market actually measures

The cryptography professor Matthew Green makes a stark prediction: I think we might lose public key cryptography. https://x.com/matthew_d_green/status/2107992246360649879 The question asked by this market is simple, will we?

This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.

View full official resolution rules

The cryptography professor Matthew Green makes a stark prediction: I think we might lose public key cryptography. https://x.com/matthew_d_green/status/2107992246360649879 The question asked by this market is simple, will we? I will define this as all existing public key cryptography algorithms in widespread use being undermined to the point of immediate deprecation by public advancements in mathematics. To get specific that means: RSA Diffie–Hellman Elliptic-curve Diffie–Hellman ECDSA EdDSA ML-KEM Streamlined NTRU Prime (sntrup761) It doesn't matter if the deprecation is caused by AI or not, nor does it matter if new algorithms are designed that immediately replace these and are considered safe. By "public" I mean that there exists a public demonstration which convinces experts that existing algorithms need to be immediately deprecated and people behave as though this is true (e.g. Chrome changes their crypto, or we temporarily shut down all e-commerce because it can't be guaranteed safe, things like this), the actual method that breaks the algorithms doesn't need to be public just that a party is in possession of one and the algorithms are now considered deprecated by experts. If this happens by 2028 I resolve the question YES, if it doesn't happen I resolve NO at the end of 2028. Update 2026-10-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will resolve YES if we lose public key encryption, even if public key signing (such as hash-based signing) remains secure.

What could move this market next?

  • The market's deadline arrivesDecember 31, 2028 at 6:59 PM ET

    The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.

Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 11, 4:32 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.

Advanced analysis (experimental)

Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±15 pts.

Thin marketLegacy movement classifier: watch

What's happening

low classifier confidence
Thin market

Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.

  • Thin book and/or wide spread.

Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.

More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
20Low
Where the price path tends to go next998 observed
  • Illiquid / quiet99%

Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.

DurabilityHigh· half-life —
PredictabilityStable

Secondary read: leaning toward Stale price.

A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.

Market data

24h volume

34.6 mana

Liquidity

1K mana

Total volume

5.9K mana

Category
Other
Venue
Manifold
Open interest
—
Current probability
8.4%
Resolves
Dec 31, 2028
Change (pts)1H0.06H0.024H0.07D0.0

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