Market capacity
How hard is it to move this price?
Pool liquidity
100 mana
Bid-ask spread
n/a
automated market maker
24h volume
42.8 mana
Total volume
88.9 mana
Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.
As of Oct 13, 2026, 1:19 AM ET, Manifold priced this market at 71.2% (up from 65.3% 24 hours earlier). It had 42.8 mana traded in the past 24 hours and 100 mana of pool liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as moderate.
Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — thin market where small orders can move the price — today's move came from a small group of accounts.
Source: Manifold price history
Is the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing has partial support: moderate trading volume.
Has the market settled at the new probability?
The probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.
Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?
The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.
How hard is it to move this price?
Pool liquidity
100 mana
Bid-ask spread
n/a
automated market maker
24h volume
42.8 mana
Total volume
88.9 mana
Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.
Whose opinion is this price?
Accounts
4
Trades
32
over 70 days
Largest order
18.8 mana
88.9 mana traded across these 32 trades (last 70 days).
A small group of accounts did most of the trading — neither one whale nor a broad crowd.
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) refers to a type of artificial intelligence that has the ability to understand, learn, and apply its intelligence to a wide variety of problems, much like a human being. Unlike narrow or weak AI, which is designed and trained for specific tasks (like language translation, playing a game, or image recognition), AGI can theoretically perform any intellectual task that a human being…
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) refers to a type of artificial intelligence that has the ability to understand, learn, and apply its intelligence to a wide variety of problems, much like a human being. Unlike narrow or weak AI, which is designed and trained for specific tasks (like language translation, playing a game, or image recognition), AGI can theoretically perform any intellectual task that a human being can. It involves the capability to reason, plan, solve problems, think abstractly, comprehend complex ideas, learn quickly, and learn from experience. Resolves as YES if such a system is created and publicly announced before January 1st 2035 Here are markets with the same criteria: @/RemNiFHfMN/did-agi-emerge-in-2023 @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2025 @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2026-3d9bfaa96a61 @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2027-d7b5f2b00ace @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2028-ff560f9e9346 @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2029-ef1c187271ed @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2030 @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2031 @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2032 @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2033 @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2034 @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2033-34ec8e1d00fd (this question) @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2036 @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2037 @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2038 @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2039 @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2040 @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2041 @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2042 @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2043 @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2044 @/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2045 @/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2046 @/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2047 @/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2048 Related markets: @/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2027 @/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2028 @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-asi-before-2029 @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-asi-before-2030 @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-asi-before-2031 @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-asi-before-2032 @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-asi-before-2033 @/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2034 @/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2035 Other questions for 2035: @/RemNiFHfMN/will-there-be-a-manned-mission-to-v @/RemNiFHfMN/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-m-3fcd58236f90 @/RemNiFHfMN/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-j-89a5bfdee8ca @/RemNiFHfMN/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-s-2a28875c1c26 @/RemNi/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-u-0a7d585d5f97 @/RemNi/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-n-1c5b2e348e1d @/RemNi/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-p-a35e6823fbba @/RemNiFHfMN/will-a-directed-energy-system-lift-35fc264bbc88 @/RemNiFHfMN/will-earth-have-a-space-elevator-be-46410d8053fa@/RemNi/will-we-discover-alien-life-before-ab3eca7983aa @/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-d778d2f304f5 @/RemNi/will-we-get-room-temperature-superc-ece7abf70bde @/RemNi/will-we-get-a-cure-for-cancer-befor-8ae988ef1cac @/RemNiFHfMN/will-a-human-venture-onto-the-lunar-163b9107ef15 @/RemNiFHfMN/will-a-human-venture-onto-the-surfa-cc226795c047 @/RemNiFHfMN/will-a-human-venture-onto-the-surfa-285b5811deab Other points of reference for AGI: @/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-vladimir-put @/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-xi-jinping-s @/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-a-human-vent @/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-a-human-vent-549ed4a31a05 @/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-we-get-room @/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-we-discover @/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-we-get-fusio @/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-1m-humanoid (Identical market to: source market)
The probability rose 5.9 percentage points over the last 24 hours (65.3% → 71.2%).
No verified catalyst has been linked to this move yet. ProbCast does not attribute moves to news without evidence connecting the timing of a specific report to the repricing.
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 13, 1:25 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±23 pts.
Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.
Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.