Will Washington Initiative IL26-638 (girls' sports eligibility by sex) be approved in the November 3, 2026 election?

This market resolves YES if Washington Initiative IL26-638 (Initiative Measure No. IL26-638 concerns participation in athletics at K-12 schools.) is approved by voters at the November 3, 2026 general election under its official approval rule: Majority of votes cast on the measure, provided votes on it equal ≥1/3 of all votes cast at the election (Wash. Const. art. II §1(d)); effective 30th day after election (2026-12-03). Votes cast on the measure must equal at least one-third of total votes cast at the election (Wash. Const. art. II §1(d)). Only the November 3, 2026 vote counts; earlier votes on similar proposals do not. YES means voter approval at this election, not that the measure is later implemented. What the votes mean (official summary): YES: Prohibits 'biologically male' students from female-only school athletics and requires provider-signed sex verification for female teams. NO: Current sex/gender-identity non-discrimination rules for school sports stay. Results: resolves on the result certified by Washington Secretary of State (certifies statewide results by 30th day after election, RCW 29A.60.250). It may resolve earlier once official returns or the Associated Press show the outcome cannot change and no recount is pending; if a recount or certified correction changes the outcome before resolution, the certified result controls. No vote: if the measure is removed from the ballot, a court orders its votes not to be counted, or the vote is postponed beyond November 3, 2026, the market resolves N/A. Later legal challenges: resolution follows voter approval as certified. A court later invalidating, enjoining or delaying the measure does not change the resolution. Starting probability: 50% is a neutral starting seed, not a forecast. Official source: https://www.sos.wa.gov/elections/data-research/election-data-and-maps/election-results-and-voters-pamphlets/2026-general-election-voters-guide