Will Washington Initiative IL26-001 (restoring 2024 parents' rights law) be approved in the November 3, 2026 election?

This market resolves YES if Washington Initiative IL26-001 (Initiative Measure No. IL26-001 concerns parental rights relating to their children in public school.) is approved by voters at the November 3, 2026 general election under its official approval rule: Majority of votes cast on the measure, provided votes on it equal ≥1/3 of all votes cast at the election (Wash. Const. art. II §1(d)); effective 30th day after election (2026-12-03). Votes cast on the measure must equal at least one-third of total votes cast at the election (Wash. Const. art. II §1(d)). Only the November 3, 2026 vote counts; earlier votes on similar proposals do not. YES means voter approval at this election, not that the measure is later implemented. What the votes mean (official summary): YES: Repeals the 2025 amendments and restores RCW 28A.605.005 (parent/guardian rights list) as enacted by Initiative 2081 in 2024. NO: The parents' rights statute stays as amended by the 2025 Legislature. Results: resolves on the result certified by Washington Secretary of State (certifies statewide results by 30th day after election, RCW 29A.60.250). It may resolve earlier once official returns or the Associated Press show the outcome cannot change and no recount is pending; if a recount or certified correction changes the outcome before resolution, the certified result controls. No vote: if the measure is removed from the ballot, a court orders its votes not to be counted, or the vote is postponed beyond November 3, 2026, the market resolves N/A. Later legal challenges: resolution follows voter approval as certified. A court later invalidating, enjoining or delaying the measure does not change the resolution. Starting probability: 50% is a neutral starting seed, not a forecast. Official source: https://www.sos.wa.gov/elections/data-research/election-data-and-maps/election-results-and-voters-pamphlets/2026-general-election-voters-guide