Market capacity
How hard is it to move this price?
Thin
Pool liquidity
100 mana
Bid-ask spread
n/a
automated market maker
24h volume
76.8 mana
Total volume
76.8 mana
Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.
Will Vladimir Putin permanently abolish elections before 2040?
As of Oct 11, 2026, 10:54 PM ET, Manifold priced this market at 27.7% (down from 50.0% 24 hours earlier). It had 76.8 mana traded in the past 24 hours and 100 mana of pool liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as weak.
Market probability
27.7%
−22.3 percentage points
over 24 hours50.0% → 27.7%
Moving fastBig move, weak backing
Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — thin market where small orders can move the price — today's move came from a small group of accounts.
Price historyManifold
Source: Manifold price history
How credible was the move?
Methodology →Move validity
WeakIs the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing has weak support: moderate trading volume.
Consensus stability
UnsettledHas the market settled at the new probability?
The probability moved another 2.6 points in the past hour — the market is still repricing.
Contract clarity
HighWill the rules resolve without ambiguity?
The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
Can you trust this price?
Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.
Who's trading
Whose opinion is this price?
A few accounts
34%of the traded money came from the single largest account
Accounts
6
Trades
12
over 5h
Largest order
25 mana
72.8 mana traded across these 12 trades (last 5h).
A small group of accounts did most of the trading — neither one whale nor a broad crowd.
Recent trade activity$72.8 traded
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
Why the odds moved
The probability fell 22.3 percentage points over the last 24 hours (50.0% → 27.7%).
No verified catalyst has been linked to this move yet. ProbCast does not attribute moves to news without evidence connecting the timing of a specific report to the repricing.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesDecember 31, 2039 at 6:00 AM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 11, 10:59 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±30 pts.
Reacting to newsLegacy movement classifier: noisy
What's happening
high classifier confidence
Reacting to news
The price is actively repricing on real volume. The number is still moving — don't treat the latest print as settled consensus yet.
- Probability moved 22.3 pts in ≤6h on adequate liquidity
Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
5Low
Where the price path tends to go next1061 observed
- Illiquid / quiet99%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
DurabilityMedium· half-life ~1h
PredictabilityStable
Secondary read: leaning toward Trending.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Market data
24h volume
76.8 mana
Liquidity
100 mana
Total volume
76.8 mana
- Category
- Geopolitics
- Venue
- Manifold
- Open interest
- —
- Current probability
- 27.7%
- 7-day range
- 27.7% – 50.0%
- Resolves
- Dec 31, 2039
Change (pts)1H-2.66H-22.324H-22.37D-22.3