Market capacity
How hard is it to move this price?
Thin
Pool liquidity
100 mana
Bid-ask spread
n/a
automated market maker
24h volume
41.8 mana
Total volume
369 mana
Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.
Will Vivek Ramaswamy be the next Governor of Ohio?
As of Oct 24, 2026, 7:42 AM ET, Manifold priced this market at 14.4% (down from 17.9% 24 hours earlier). It had 41.8 mana traded in the past 24 hours and 100 mana of pool liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as moderate.
Market probability
14.4%
−3.5 percentage points
over 24 hours17.9% → 14.4%
Not live — snapshot Oct 24, 7:42 AM ET
Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — thin market where small orders can move the price — but today's move came mostly from one account.
Price historyManifold
Source: Manifold price history
How credible was the move?
Methodology →Move validity
ModerateIs the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing has partial support: moderate trading volume.
Consensus stability
StableHas the market settled at the new probability?
The probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.
Contract clarity
MediumWill the rules resolve without ambiguity?
Moderate resolution risk, driven mainly by no resolution basis.
Can you trust this price?
Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.
Who's trading
Whose opinion is this price?
One account dominates
95%of the traded money came from the single largest account
Accounts
4
Trades
125
over 52 days
Largest order
7.7 mana
254.2 mana traded across these 125 trades (last 52 days).
One account did most of the recent trading — the price reflects that account's view more than a crowd's.
Recent trade activity$254.2 traded
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
(Identical market to: source market)
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
(Identical market to: source market)
Why the odds moved
The probability fell 3.5 percentage points over the last 24 hours (17.9% → 14.4%).
No verified catalyst has been linked to this move yet. ProbCast does not attribute moves to news without evidence connecting the timing of a specific report to the repricing.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesNovember 3, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 24, 10:37 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±25 pts.
One big traderLegacy movement classifier: watch
What's happening
high classifier confidence
One big trader
Recent movement was driven largely by one participant with little broad follow-through. The move may not represent consensus.
- One participant drove 95% of recent flow
- Move not broadly confirmed (4 participants)
Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
1Low
Where the price path tends to go next553 observed
- Illiquid / quiet98%
- Choppy / mean-reverting2%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
DurabilityMedium· half-life ~14h
PredictabilityElevated irreducibility
Secondary read: leaning toward Thin market.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Change (pts)1H0.06H0.024H-3.57D-3.5