Market capacity
How hard is it to move this price?
Thin
Pool liquidity
1K mana
Bid-ask spread
n/a
automated market maker
24h volume
50 mana
Total volume
52 mana
Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.
Will Virginia Question 2 (removing same-sex marriage ban) be approved in the November 3, 2026 election?
As of Oct 18, 2026, 2:39 AM ET, Manifold priced this market at 94.8% (little changed over 24 hours). It had 50 mana traded in the past 24 hours and 1K mana of pool liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as moderate.
Market probability
94.8%
Little changed over 24 hours
Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — thin market where small orders can move the price — though most recent trading came from one account.
Price historyManifold
Source: ProbCast snapshots (Manifold)
How credible was the move?
Methodology →Move validity
ModerateIs the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing has partial support: moderate trading volume.
Consensus stability
StableHas the market settled at the new probability?
The probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.
Contract clarity
HighWill the rules resolve without ambiguity?
The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
Can you trust this price?
Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.
Who's trading
Whose opinion is this price?
One account dominates
96%of the traded money came from the single largest account
Accounts
2
Trades
3
over 12 days
Largest order
50 mana
52 mana traded across these 3 trades (last 12 days).
One account did most of the recent trading — the price reflects that account's view more than a crowd's.
Recent trade activity$52 traded
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
This market resolves YES if Virginia Question 2 (Should the Constitution of Virginia be amended to (i) remove the ban on same-sex marriage; (ii) affirm that two adults may marry regardless of sex, gender, or race; and (iii) require all legally valid marriages to be treated equally under the law?) is approved by voters at the November 3, 2026 general election under its official approval rule: Majority of those voting …
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
This market resolves YES if Virginia Question 2 (Should the Constitution of Virginia be amended to (i) remove the ban on same-sex marriage; (ii) affirm that two adults may marry regardless of sex, gender, or race; and (iii) require all legally valid marriages to be treated equally under the law?) is approved by voters at the November 3, 2026 general election under its official approval rule: Majority of those voting on the amendment (Va. Const. art. XII, sec. 1). Only the November 3, 2026 vote counts; earlier votes on similar proposals do not. YES means voter approval at this election, not that the measure is later implemented. What the votes mean (official summary): YES: Removes the one-man-one-woman marriage ban from Art. I Sec. 15-A; adds that marriage is a vital personal right; state may not deny a license to two adults based on sex, gender or race and must recognize such marriages equally (official explanation). NO: Ban stays in the Constitution; unenforceable under Obergefell v. Hodges (2015) but would become enforceable again if that decision were overturned (official 'Present Law'). Results: resolves on the result certified by Virginia State Board of Elections / Department of Elections. It may resolve earlier once official returns or the Associated Press show the outcome cannot change and no recount is pending; if a recount or certified correction changes the outcome before resolution, the certified result controls. No vote: if the measure is removed from the ballot, a court orders its votes not to be counted, or the vote is postponed beyond November 3, 2026, the market resolves N/A. Later legal challenges: resolution follows voter approval as certified. A court later invalidating, enjoining or delaying the measure does not change the resolution. Starting probability: 50% is a neutral starting seed, not a forecast. Official source: https://www.elections.virginia.gov/election-law/proposed-constitutional-amendment-question-2/
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesNovember 4, 2026 at 7:00 AM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 18, 2:52 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±17 pts.
Thin marketLegacy movement classifier: watch
What's happening
low classifier confidence
Thin market
Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.
- Thin book and/or wide spread.
Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
17Low
Where the price path tends to go next570 observed
- Illiquid / quiet99%
- Choppy / mean-reverting1%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
DurabilityHigh· half-life ~1w
PredictabilityStable
Secondary read: leaning toward Stale price.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Change (pts)1H0.06H+0.324H+0.37D+0.3