ManifoldPlay moneyAI / TechLikely noiseUpdated 7m ago

Will users be able to donate unused AI-token allowances to open-source projects by 2027?

As of Oct 17, 2026, 5:58 AM ET, Manifold priced this market at 14.2% (down from 19.9% 24 hours earlier). It had 56.7 mana traded in the past 24 hours and 100 mana of pool liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as weak.

Market probability
14.2%
−5.7 percentage points
over 24 hours19.9% → 14.2%
Moving fastBig move, weak backing

Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — thin market where small orders can move the price — today's move came from a small group of accounts.

Price historyManifold

Source: Manifold price history

How credible was the move?

Methodology →

Move validity

Weak

Consensus stability

Forming

Contract clarity

High

Can you trust this price?

Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.

Market capacity

How hard is it to move this price?

Thin

Pool liquidity

100 mana

Bid-ask spread

n/a

automated market maker

24h volume

56.7 mana

Total volume

180.1 mana

Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.

Who's trading

Whose opinion is this price?

A few accounts
57%of the traded money came from the single largest account

Accounts

5

Trades

7

over 69 days

Largest order

100 mana

176.7 mana traded across these 7 trades (last 69 days).

A small group of accounts did most of the trading — neither one whale nor a broad crowd.

Recent trade activity$176.7 traded

From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.

What this market actually measures

In Unfortunately, I Was Right, uploaded June 10, 2026, ThePrimeagen predicted that users would be able to donate part of their AI-token budgets to open-source projects so those projects could pay for AI-powered CI and other tools. Resolution criteria This market resolves YES if, before January 1, 2027, at least one publicly available service allows an individual or organization to transfer or assign part of an existi…

This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.

View full official resolution rules

In Unfortunately, I Was Right, uploaded June 10, 2026, ThePrimeagen predicted that users would be able to donate part of their AI-token budgets to open-source projects so those projects could pay for AI-powered CI and other tools. Resolution criteria This market resolves YES if, before January 1, 2027, at least one publicly available service allows an individual or organization to transfer or assign part of an existing, unused AI usage allowance or credit budget to an unrelated open-source project or maintainer. The recipient must be able to spend the donated allowance on AI inference, coding agents, automated review, CI, or similar AI services. Qualifies Transferring part of an existing subscription or organizational AI-credit allowance Assigning unused credits to a verified open-source project A supported donation pool funded by users' already-purchased or already-allocated AI credits A service available to new donors and recipients, even if participation requires an application Does not qualify Donating money that is subsequently used to purchase credits An AI provider giving away its own promotional credits Free or discounted plans for maintainers paid entirely by the provider Sharing account credentials, OAuth tokens, or raw API keys Selling or reselling subscription capacity Donating local GPU or CPU compute Moving credits between employees or teams within the same organization A private, one-off arrangement unavailable to other users A product announcement without a usable donation mechanism Historical projects that were already unavailable when this market was created do not qualify unless they relaunch before the deadline. If no qualifying service is publicly documented by the deadline, this market resolves NO.

Why the odds moved

The probability fell 5.7 percentage points over the last 24 hours (19.9% → 14.2%).

No verified catalyst has been linked to this move yet. ProbCast does not attribute moves to news without evidence connecting the timing of a specific report to the repricing.

What could move this market next?

  • The market's deadline arrivesJanuary 1, 2027 at 3:00 AM ET

    The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.

Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 17, 6:06 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.

Advanced analysis (experimental)

Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±27 pts.

Reacting to newsLegacy movement classifier: noisy

What's happening

medium classifier confidence
Reacting to news

The price is actively repricing on real volume. The number is still moving — don't treat the latest print as settled consensus yet.

  • Probability moved 5.7 pts in ≤6h on adequate liquidity

Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.

More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
20Low
Where the price path tends to go next631 observed
  • Illiquid / quiet99%

Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.

DurabilityMedium· half-life ~11h
PredictabilityStable

Secondary read: leaning toward Thin market.

A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.

Change (pts)1H0.06H-5.724H-5.77D-5.7

Related markets