Market capacity
How hard is it to move this price?
Thin
Pool liquidity
100 mana
Bid-ask spread
n/a
automated market maker
24h volume
100 mana
Total volume
105 mana
Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.
Will US reported losses from voice-cloning or deepfake impersonation scams exceed $1 billion for calendar year 2027?
As of Nov 1, 2026, 4:18 AM ET, Manifold priced this market at 19.2% (down from 47.6% 24 hours earlier). It had 100 mana traded in the past 24 hours and 100 mana of pool liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as weak.
Market probability
19.2%
−28.3 percentage points
over 24 hours47.6% → 19.2%
Moving fastBig move, weak backing
Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — thin market where small orders can move the price — only a few trades sit behind today's move.
Price historyManifold
Source: Manifold price history
How credible was the move?
Methodology →Move validity
WeakIs the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing has weak support: moderate trading volume.
Consensus stability
FormingHas the market settled at the new probability?
Movement has slowed (28.3 points over six hours) but the market has not fully settled.
Contract clarity
HighWill the rules resolve without ambiguity?
The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
Can you trust this price?
Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.
Who's trading
Whose opinion is this price?
Too few trades
95%of the traded money came from the single largest account
Accounts
2
Trades
2
over 32h
Largest order
100 mana
105 mana traded across these 2 trades (last 32h).
Too few recent trades to say who is setting this price.
Recent trade activity$105 traded
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
Resolves YES if the FBI IC3 annual report for 2027, the FTC Consumer Sentinel data for 2027, or an official statement from either agency puts US losses from scams that used AI voice cloning or deepfake impersonation at $1 billion or more for the year. If neither agency breaks the figure out and no official source gives one by June 30, 2028, resolves NO.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Resolves YES if the FBI IC3 annual report for 2027, the FTC Consumer Sentinel data for 2027, or an official statement from either agency puts US losses from scams that used AI voice cloning or deepfake impersonation at $1 billion or more for the year. If neither agency breaks the figure out and no official source gives one by June 30, 2028, resolves NO. Background: in September 2026 I asked an AI for its ten-year forecast, best case and worst case. Its 2027 worst-case list included "Voice cloning drives fraud into the billions; calls stop being trusted." I am making a market for each checkable point so the forecast can be scored. The full forecast is free: The Forecast: 2027 to 2036, best case and worst case [link preview]
Why the odds moved
The probability fell 28.3 percentage points over the last 24 hours (47.6% → 19.3%).
No verified catalyst has been linked to this move yet. ProbCast does not attribute moves to news without evidence connecting the timing of a specific report to the repricing.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesJune 30, 2028 at 7:59 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Nov 1, 4:30 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±31 pts.
Reacting to newsLegacy movement classifier: noisy
What's happening
high classifier confidence
Reacting to news
The price is actively repricing on real volume. The number is still moving — don't treat the latest print as settled consensus yet.
- Probability moved 28.3 pts in ≤6h on adequate liquidity
Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
0Low
Where the price path tends to go next400 observed
- Illiquid / quiet97%
- Choppy / mean-reverting2%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
DurabilityMedium· half-life ~2h
PredictabilityElevated irreducibility
Secondary read: leaning toward One big trader.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Change (pts)1H0.06H-28.324H-28.37D-28.3