ManifoldPlay moneyGeopoliticsDevelopingUpdated 3h ago

Will Uber take over Delivery Hero until end of 2026?

As of Oct 25, 2026, 2:03 PM ET, Manifold priced this market at 16.1% (down from 19.5% 24 hours earlier). It had 25 mana traded in the past 24 hours and 100 mana of pool liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as moderate.

Market probability
16.1%
−3.4 percentage points
over 24 hours19.5% → 16.1%
Not live — snapshot Oct 25, 2:03 PM ET

Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — thin market where small orders can move the price — today's move came from a small group of accounts.

Price historyManifold

Source: ProbCast snapshots (Manifold)

How credible was the move?

Methodology →

Move validity

Moderate

Consensus stability

Stable

Contract clarity

High

Can you trust this price?

Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.

Market capacity

How hard is it to move this price?

Thin

Pool liquidity

100 mana

Bid-ask spread

n/a

automated market maker

24h volume

25 mana

Total volume

175.4 mana

Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.

Who's trading

Whose opinion is this price?

A few accounts
58%of the traded money came from the single largest account

Accounts

5

Trades

6

over 59 days

Largest order

100 mana

173.7 mana traded across these 6 trades (last 59 days).

A small group of accounts did most of the trading — neither one whale nor a broad crowd.

Recent trade activity$173.7 traded

From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.

What this market actually measures

Resolution criteria This market will resolve to YES if Uber Technologies, Inc. (or a wholly-owned subsidiary) officially completes its acquisition/takeover of Delivery Hero SE on or before December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM UTC.

This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.

View full official resolution rules

Resolution criteria This market will resolve to YES if Uber Technologies, Inc. (or a wholly-owned subsidiary) officially completes its acquisition/takeover of Delivery Hero SE on or before December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM UTC. "Completion" is defined as the formal closing of the transaction, where ownership/control of Delivery Hero is officially transferred to Uber. This must be confirmed by official company statements on Uber Investor Relations or Delivery Hero Investor Relations, or in filings with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) or German regulatory authorities (BaFin). If the transaction is not completed by the deadline—including if it remains pending, is delayed into 2027 or later, or if the deal is terminated—the market will resolve to NO. Background On July 16, 2026, Uber announced a voluntary public takeover offer to acquire German food delivery company Delivery Hero in an all-cash deal valuing the company's equity at approximately €13 billion ($14.8 billion). Uber published its formal offer document on August 27, 2026, initiating a shareholder acceptance period running through November 5, 2026. Although Uber has secured commitments giving it a roughly 53% economic interest in Delivery Hero, the transaction remains subject to merger control clearances and regulatory approvals across numerous global jurisdictions. As of August 2026, both companies expect the transaction to close in the second half of 2027. This market tracks whether the acquisition can be completed significantly ahead of schedule, by the end of 2026. This description was generated by AI. Review and verify everything here yourself. You can edit, replace, or delete any part of this description, including the resolution criteria. You do not need to trust the AI output.

Why the odds moved

The probability fell 3.4 percentage points over the last 24 hours (19.5% → 16.1%).

No verified catalyst has been linked to this move yet. ProbCast does not attribute moves to news without evidence connecting the timing of a specific report to the repricing.

What could move this market next?

  • The market's deadline arrivesDecember 31, 2026 at 6:59 PM ET

    The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.

Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 25, 4:39 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.

Advanced analysis (experimental)

Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±21 pts.

Thin marketLegacy movement classifier: watch

What's happening

medium classifier confidence
Thin market

Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.

  • Thin book and/or wide spread.

Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.

More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
10Low
Where the price path tends to go next553 observed
  • Illiquid / quiet98%
  • Choppy / mean-reverting1%

Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.

DurabilityHigh· half-life ~19h
PredictabilityStable

Secondary read: leaning toward One big trader.

A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.

Change (pts)1H0.06H0.024H-3.47D-3.4

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