ManifoldPlay moneyPoliticsLikely noiseUpdated 6m ago

Will Trump's approval rating hit 36% or lower before Feb 1st 2027

As of Oct 12, 2026, 3:09 PM ET, Manifold priced this market at 81.0% (up from 50.0% 24 hours earlier). It had 118.9 mana traded in the past 24 hours and 100 mana of pool liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as weak.

Market probability

81.0%

+31 percentage points

over 24 hours50.0% → 81.0%

Moving fastBig move, weak backingEnds Jan 31, 2027 · 110 days

Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — thin market where small orders can move the price — but today's move came mostly from one account.

Price historyManifold

Source: Manifold price history

How credible was the move?

Methodology →

Move validity

Weak

Consensus stability

Forming

Contract clarity

Medium

Can you trust this price?

Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.

Market capacity

How hard is it to move this price?

Thin

Pool liquidity

100 mana

Bid-ask spread

n/a

automated market maker

24h volume

118.9 mana

Total volume

0 mana

Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.

Who's trading

Whose opinion is this price?

One account dominates

64%of the traded money came from the single largest account

Accounts

Trades

over 7h

Largest order

75 mana

117 mana traded across these 6 trades (last 7h).

One account did most of the recent trading — the price reflects that account's view more than a crowd's.

Recent trade activity$117 traded

From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.

Why the odds moved

The probability rose 31.0 percentage points over the last 24 hours (50.0% → 81.0%).

No verified catalyst has been linked to this move yet. ProbCast does not attribute moves to news without evidence connecting the timing of a specific report to the repricing.

What could move this market next?

The market's deadline arrivesJanuary 31, 2027 at 5:46 AM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.

Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 12, 3:15 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.

Advanced analysis (experimental)

Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±30 pts.

Reacting to newsLegacy movement classifier: noisy

What's happening

high classifier confidence

Reacting to news

The price is actively repricing on real volume. The number is still moving — don't treat the latest print as settled consensus yet.

Probability moved 26.2 pts in ≤6h on adequate liquidity

Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.

More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability

Reliability score

1Low

Where the price path tends to go next1231 observed

Illiquid / quiet99%

Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.

DurabilityMedium· half-life <1h

PredictabilityStable

Secondary read: leaning toward One big trader.

A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.

Market data