Market capacity
How hard is it to move this price?
Thin
Pool liquidity
100 mana
Bid-ask spread
n/a
automated market maker
24h volume
251.2 mana
Total volume
323.2 mana
Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.
Will Treasury ease Russia sanctions beyond diesel (crude oil, gasoline or jet fuel) before Election Day, Nov 3 2026?
As of Nov 3, 2026, 6:33 AM ET, Manifold priced this market at 4.0% (down from 16.7% 24 hours earlier). It had 251.2 mana traded in the past 24 hours and 100 mana of pool liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as weak.
Market probability
4.0%
−12.7 percentage points
over 24 hours16.7% → 4.0%
Moving fastBig move, weak backingResolving soon
Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — thin market where small orders can move the price — but today's move came mostly from one account.
Price historyManifold
Source: Manifold price history
How credible was the move?
Methodology →Move validity
WeakIs the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing has weak support: moderate trading volume.
Consensus stability
FormingHas the market settled at the new probability?
Movement has slowed (12.7 points over six hours) but the market has not fully settled.
Contract clarity
HighWill the rules resolve without ambiguity?
The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
Can you trust this price?
Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.
Who's trading
Whose opinion is this price?
One account dominates
74%of the traded money came from the single largest account
Accounts
10
Trades
15
over 24 days
Largest order
200 mana
269 mana traded across these 15 trades (last 24 days).
One account did most of the recent trading — the price reflects that account's view more than a crowd's.
Recent trade activity$269 traded
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
On October 9, 2026, Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) issued a Russia-related general license authorizing the sale, delivery and importation (including into the United States) of Russian-origin diesel fuel through April 7, 2027, after President Trump announced a diesel supply deal with Vladimir Putin. This market asks whether the easing goes further before Election Day.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
On October 9, 2026, Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) issued a Russia-related general license authorizing the sale, delivery and importation (including into the United States) of Russian-origin diesel fuel through April 7, 2027, after President Trump announced a diesel supply deal with Vladimir Putin. This market asks whether the easing goes further before Election Day. Resolves YES if, between market creation and November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, OFAC issues a new general license, or amends an existing one, that authorizes transactions in Russian-origin crude oil, gasoline, or jet fuel that US sanctions would otherwise prohibit. The license has to be listed on OFAC's Recent Actions page: https://ofac.treasury.gov/recent-actions Does NOT count: The October 9 diesel license, or any extension or amendment of it that still covers only diesel. Wind-down or maintenance licenses limited to one named company's assets or operations (for example Lukoil's foreign retail stations), and licenses limited to a single project or pipeline (for example Sakhalin-2, or the CPC pipeline carrying Kazakh oil). Statements, Truth Social posts or announced "deals" without an OFAC license issued by the deadline. Resolves NO otherwise. If the license text is ambiguous, I will go by the text OFAC publishes, not by press characterisation. Context: Fortune https://fortune.com/2026/10/09/trump-putin-russian-diesel-deal-zelenskyy-sanctions/ · NBC https://www.nbcnews.com/business/energy/trump-putin-diesel-prices-rcna602566 I will not bet in this market for at least 7 days after creation.
Why the odds moved
The probability fell 12.7 percentage points over the last 24 hours (16.7% → 4.0%).
No verified catalyst has been linked to this move yet. ProbCast does not attribute moves to news without evidence connecting the timing of a specific report to the repricing.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesNovember 3, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Nov 3, 6:37 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±31 pts.
Reacting to newsLegacy movement classifier: noisy
What's happening
high classifier confidence
Reacting to news
The price is actively repricing on real volume. The number is still moving — don't treat the latest print as settled consensus yet.
- Probability moved 12.7 pts in ≤6h on adequate liquidity
- Flow one-directional across 10 participants (broad, not a single order)
Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
7Low
Where the price path tends to go next393 observed
- Illiquid / quiet99%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
DurabilityMedium· half-life ~6h
PredictabilityElevated irreducibility
Secondary read: leaning toward One big trader.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Change (pts)1H0.06H-12.724H-12.77D-12.7