Market capacity
How hard is it to move this price?
Thin
Pool liquidity
100 mana
Bid-ask spread
n/a
automated market maker
24h volume
201 mana
Total volume
201 mana
Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.
Will Tokyo experience a major earthquake before the end of October 31, 2026?
As of Oct 13, 2026, 7:08 AM ET, Manifold priced this market at 3.2% (down from 9.1% 24 hours earlier). It had 201 mana traded in the past 24 hours and 100 mana of pool liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as weak.
Market probability
3.2%
−5.9 percentage points
over 24 hours9.1% → 3.2%
Moving fastBig move, weak backing
Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — thin market where small orders can move the price — but today's move came mostly from one account.
Price historyManifold
Source: Manifold price history
How credible was the move?
Methodology →Move validity
WeakIs the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing has weak support: moderate trading volume.
Consensus stability
FormingHas the market settled at the new probability?
Movement has slowed (5.9 points over six hours) but the market has not fully settled.
Contract clarity
MediumWill the rules resolve without ambiguity?
Moderate resolution risk, driven mainly by no resolution basis.
Can you trust this price?
Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.
Who's trading
Whose opinion is this price?
One account dominates
95%of the traded money came from the single largest account
Accounts
3
Trades
3
over 4h
Largest order
190 mana
201 mana traded across these 3 trades (last 4h).
One account did most of the recent trading — the price reflects that account's view more than a crowd's.
Recent trade activity$201 traded
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
Why the odds moved
The probability fell 5.9 percentage points over the last 24 hours (9.1% → 3.2%).
No verified catalyst has been linked to this move yet. ProbCast does not attribute moves to news without evidence connecting the timing of a specific report to the repricing.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesOctober 31, 2026 at 10:59 AM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 13, 7:14 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±28 pts.
One big traderLegacy movement classifier: noisy
What's happening
high classifier confidence
One big trader
Recent movement was driven largely by one participant with little broad follow-through. The move may not represent consensus.
- One participant drove 95% of recent flow
- Move not broadly confirmed (3 participants)
Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
0Low
Where the price path tends to go next743 observed
- Illiquid / quiet99%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
DurabilityMedium· half-life ~2h
PredictabilityStable
Secondary read: leaning toward Reacting to news.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Change (pts)1H0.06H-5.924H-5.97D-5.9
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