Will this El Niño be the strongest ever recorded?

EDIT: The original resolution criteria incorrectly states that the strongest El Niño ever had a three-month mean RONI of +2.69°C. According to the resolution source, the record is actually +2.4°C. However, for fairness purposes I will NOT be changing the original resolution Criteria. This market will resolve to YES if the RONI value from the source below reaches +2.7°C or higher. If the peak RONI value from the source below never reaches or exceeds the above value (+2.7°C), this market will resolve to NO. https://cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/ Resolution criteria This market resolves to YES if the following condition is met for any three-month running mean season during the El Niño event peaking in late 2026 or early 2027: The official Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) reaches +2.70°C or higher (strictly exceeding the historical record of +2.69°C set during the 1982-1983 winter). If the RONI value stays at or below +2.69°C, this market resolves to NO. Data Sources for Verification: NOAA CPC Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) Dataset If subsequent NOAA revisions modify the peak values of the 2026–2027 event, resolution will be determined by the official NOAA data available as of June 1, 2027. Background A historically powerful El Niño is developing in the tropical Pacific, with multiple forecast models projecting a "super" or "mega" El Niño. Historically, the strength of ENSO events has been measured by the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI), which tracks sea surface temperature anomalies in the Niño 3.4 region. Under this metric, the 2015–2016 winter holds the record at +2.6°C. However, to correct for background global ocean warming, the CPC transitioned in 2026 to the Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) as its primary ENSO tracking tool. RONI subtracts the global tropical-mean sea surface temperature anomaly to isolate the true ENSO signal, and under this index, the 1982–1983 event holds the record at +2.69°C. This description was generated by AI. Review and verify everything here yourself. You can edit, replace, or delete any part of this description, including the resolution criteria. You do not need to trust the AI output.