Market capacity
How hard is it to move this price?
Thin
Pool liquidity
100 mana
Bid-ask spread
n/a
automated market maker
24h volume
30 mana
Total volume
361.1 mana
Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.
Will the winner of the 2032 presidential election be an incumbent?
As of Oct 18, 2026, 4:20 PM ET, Manifold priced this market at 44.5% (down from 60.0% 24 hours earlier). It had 30 mana traded in the past 24 hours and 100 mana of pool liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as weak.
Market probability
44.5%
−15.5 percentage points
over 24 hours60.0% → 44.5%
Moving fastBig move, weak backingNot live — snapshot Oct 18, 4:20 PM ET
Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — thin market where small orders can move the price — but today's move came mostly from one account.
Price historyManifold
Source: ProbCast snapshots (Manifold)
How credible was the move?
Methodology →Move validity
WeakIs the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing has weak support: moderate trading volume.
Consensus stability
StableHas the market settled at the new probability?
The probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.
Contract clarity
HighWill the rules resolve without ambiguity?
The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
Can you trust this price?
Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.
Who's trading
Whose opinion is this price?
One account dominates
70%of the traded money came from the single largest account
Accounts
8
Trades
11
over 53 days
Largest order
250 mana
355.3 mana traded across these 11 trades (last 53 days).
One account did most of the recent trading — the price reflects that account's view more than a crowd's.
Recent trade activity$355.3 traded
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
YES if they are an incumbent, 50% if they were the runner-up in the 2028 presidential election, ORN N/A if no election
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
YES if they are an incumbent, 50% if they were the runner-up in the 2028 presidential election, ORN N/A if no election
Why the odds moved
The probability fell 15.5 percentage points over the last 24 hours (60.0% → 44.5%).
No verified catalyst has been linked to this move yet. ProbCast does not attribute moves to news without evidence connecting the timing of a specific report to the repricing.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesNovember 3, 2032 at 7:59 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 18, 6:57 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±30 pts.
One big traderLegacy movement classifier: noisy
What's happening
medium classifier confidence
One big trader
Recent movement was driven largely by one participant with little broad follow-through. The move may not represent consensus.
- One participant drove 70% of recent flow
Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
0Low
Where the price path tends to go next586 observed
- Illiquid / quiet99%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
DurabilityMedium· half-life ~4h
PredictabilityElevated irreducibility
Secondary read: leaning toward Thin market.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Change (pts)1H0.06H0.024H-15.57D-15.5