Will the US and/or China ban at least two open-source AI models before 2027?
As of Oct 1, 2026, 12:02 AM ET, Manifold priced this market at 61.8% (down from 68.0% 24 hours earlier). It had Ṁ16.7 traded in the past 24 hours and Ṁ100 of order-book liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as moderate.
A repricing with partial backing — read the new probability with some caution.
The pricing has partial support: moderate trading volume.
How credible was the move?
Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →
Move validity
Is the move backed by real trading and depth?
ModerateThe pricing has partial support: moderate trading volume.
Consensus stability
Has the market settled at the new probability?
StableThe probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.
Contract clarity
Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?
HighThe resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
Update 2026-07-19 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The 'and/or' means a combined total of at least two models must be banned across both countries. For example, if the US bans one model and China bans another, this resolves YES.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Update 2026-07-19 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The 'and/or' means a combined total of at least two models must be banned across both countries. For example, if the US bans one model and China bans another, this resolves YES.
Why the odds moved
The probability fell 6.2 percentage points over the last 24 hours (68.0% → 61.8%).
No verified catalyst has been linked to this move yet. ProbCast does not attribute moves to news without evidence connecting the timing of a specific report to the repricing.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesDecember 31, 2026 at 6:59 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 1, 12:12 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±24 pts.
What's happening
Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.
- Thin book and/or wide spread.
Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
- Illiquid / quiet99%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Market data
24h volume
Ṁ16.7
Liquidity
Ṁ100
Total volume
Ṁ202.4
- Category
- Geopolitics
- Venue
- Manifold
- Open interest
- —
- Current probability
- 61.8%
- 7-day range
- 61.8% – 68.0%
- Resolves
- Dec 31, 2026