ManifoldPlay moneyAI / TechLikely noiseUpdated 28m ago

Will the Riemann Hypothesis be solved before 2030?

As of Oct 30, 2026, 9:55 PM ET, Manifold priced this market at 79.7% (up from 71.7% 24 hours earlier). It had 107.2 mana traded in the past 24 hours and 100 mana of pool liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as weak.

Market probability
79.7%
+8 percentage points
over 24 hours71.7% → 79.7%
Moving fastBig move, weak backingStale priceNot live — snapshot Oct 30, 9:55 PM ET

Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — thin market where small orders can move the price — today's move came from a small group of accounts.

Price historyManifold

Source: Manifold price history

How credible was the move?

Methodology →

Move validity

Weak

Consensus stability

Forming

Contract clarity

High

Can you trust this price?

Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.

Market capacity

How hard is it to move this price?

Thin

Pool liquidity

100 mana

Bid-ask spread

n/a

automated market maker

24h volume

107.2 mana

Total volume

5.4K mana

Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.

Who's trading

Whose opinion is this price?

A few accounts
42%of the traded money came from the single largest account

Accounts

33

Trades

118

over 134 days

Largest order

1.2K mana

6.9K mana traded across these 118 trades (last 134 days).

A small group of accounts did most of the trading — neither one whale nor a broad crowd.

Recent trade activity$6.9K traded

From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.

What this market actually measures

Resolution criteria This market resolves to YES if a valid proof or counterexample of the Riemann Hypothesis accepted by the global mathematical community before January 1, 2030. Otherwise, the market resolves to NO.

This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.

View full official resolution rules

Resolution criteria This market resolves to YES if a valid proof or counterexample of the Riemann Hypothesis accepted by the global mathematical community before January 1, 2030. Otherwise, the market resolves to NO. Specifically, "solved" is defined by either of the following occurring on or before December 31, 2029 (11:59 PM UTC): The Clay Mathematics Institute (CMI) formally awards the Millennium Prize for the Riemann Hypothesis or officially announces on its website (claymath.org) that the problem has been solved. A paper proving or disproving the Riemann Hypothesis is published in a peer-reviewed academic journal, and a broad consensus of the global mathematics community (as reported by major scientific bodies or reputable scientific outlets like the International Mathematical Union, Nature, or Science) accepts the proof as correct. Edge Cases & Timing: If a proposed solution is published close to the 2030 deadline and the mathematical community is still actively reviewing it without a clear consensus, the market creator may delay resolution for up to six months (until July 1, 2030) to allow for verification. If no consensus is reached by this extension date, the market will resolve to NO. An unvetted preprint (e.g., on arXiv) without peer-reviewed publication or general community acceptance by the deadline will not suffice for a YES resolution. Background The Riemann Hypothesis, first proposed by Bernhard Riemann in 1859, is widely considered the most important unsolved problem in pure mathematics. It asserts that all non-trivial zeros of the Riemann zeta function $\zeta(s)$ have a real part equal to $1/2$. A solution would have profound implications for number theory, particularly regarding the distribution of prime numbers. In 2000, the Clay Mathematics Institute designated the Riemann Hypothesis as one of the seven Millennium Prize Problems, offering a $1 million reward for its solution. Under CMI's official rules, a proposed solution cannot be submitted directly; it must be published in a qualifying peer-reviewed journal of worldwide repute and undergo a minimum two-year waiting period to receive general acceptance from the global mathematics community before CMI will formally award the prize. This market permits a YES resolution even if the formal CMI prize has not yet been awarded by January 1, 2030, provided that a peer-reviewed publication has achieved clear, widespread acceptance as correct before the deadline. This description was generated by AI. Review and verify everything here yourself. You can edit, replace, or delete any part of this description, including the resolution criteria. You do not need to trust the AI output.

Why the odds moved

The probability rose 8.0 percentage points over the last 24 hours (71.7% → 79.7%).

No verified catalyst has been linked to this move yet. ProbCast does not attribute moves to news without evidence connecting the timing of a specific report to the repricing.

What could move this market next?

  • The market's deadline arrivesDecember 31, 2029 at 6:59 PM ET

    The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.

Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 30, 10:23 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.

Advanced analysis (experimental)

Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±31 pts.

Reacting to newsLegacy movement classifier: noisy

What's happening

high classifier confidence
Reacting to news

The price is actively repricing on real volume. The number is still moving — don't treat the latest print as settled consensus yet.

  • Probability moved 8.0 pts in ≤6h on adequate liquidity

Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.

More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
15Low
Where the price path tends to go next435 observed
  • Illiquid / quiet97%
  • Choppy / mean-reverting2%

Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.

DurabilityMedium· half-life ~10h
PredictabilityElevated irreducibility

Secondary read: leaning toward Stale price.

A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.

Change (pts)1H0.06H+8.024H+8.07D+8.0

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