Market capacity
How hard is it to move this price?
Pool liquidity
100 mana
Bid-ask spread
n/a
automated market maker
24h volume
107.2 mana
Total volume
5.4K mana
Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.
As of Oct 30, 2026, 9:55 PM ET, Manifold priced this market at 79.7% (up from 71.7% 24 hours earlier). It had 107.2 mana traded in the past 24 hours and 100 mana of pool liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as weak.
Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — thin market where small orders can move the price — today's move came from a small group of accounts.
Source: Manifold price history
Is the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing has weak support: moderate trading volume.
Has the market settled at the new probability?
Movement has slowed (8 points over six hours) but the market has not fully settled.
Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?
The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.
How hard is it to move this price?
Pool liquidity
100 mana
Bid-ask spread
n/a
automated market maker
24h volume
107.2 mana
Total volume
5.4K mana
Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.
Whose opinion is this price?
Accounts
33
Trades
118
over 134 days
Largest order
1.2K mana
6.9K mana traded across these 118 trades (last 134 days).
A small group of accounts did most of the trading — neither one whale nor a broad crowd.
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
Resolution criteria This market resolves to YES if a valid proof or counterexample of the Riemann Hypothesis accepted by the global mathematical community before January 1, 2030. Otherwise, the market resolves to NO.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
Resolution criteria This market resolves to YES if a valid proof or counterexample of the Riemann Hypothesis accepted by the global mathematical community before January 1, 2030. Otherwise, the market resolves to NO. Specifically, "solved" is defined by either of the following occurring on or before December 31, 2029 (11:59 PM UTC): The Clay Mathematics Institute (CMI) formally awards the Millennium Prize for the Riemann Hypothesis or officially announces on its website (claymath.org) that the problem has been solved. A paper proving or disproving the Riemann Hypothesis is published in a peer-reviewed academic journal, and a broad consensus of the global mathematics community (as reported by major scientific bodies or reputable scientific outlets like the International Mathematical Union, Nature, or Science) accepts the proof as correct. Edge Cases & Timing: If a proposed solution is published close to the 2030 deadline and the mathematical community is still actively reviewing it without a clear consensus, the market creator may delay resolution for up to six months (until July 1, 2030) to allow for verification. If no consensus is reached by this extension date, the market will resolve to NO. An unvetted preprint (e.g., on arXiv) without peer-reviewed publication or general community acceptance by the deadline will not suffice for a YES resolution. Background The Riemann Hypothesis, first proposed by Bernhard Riemann in 1859, is widely considered the most important unsolved problem in pure mathematics. It asserts that all non-trivial zeros of the Riemann zeta function $\zeta(s)$ have a real part equal to $1/2$. A solution would have profound implications for number theory, particularly regarding the distribution of prime numbers. In 2000, the Clay Mathematics Institute designated the Riemann Hypothesis as one of the seven Millennium Prize Problems, offering a $1 million reward for its solution. Under CMI's official rules, a proposed solution cannot be submitted directly; it must be published in a qualifying peer-reviewed journal of worldwide repute and undergo a minimum two-year waiting period to receive general acceptance from the global mathematics community before CMI will formally award the prize. This market permits a YES resolution even if the formal CMI prize has not yet been awarded by January 1, 2030, provided that a peer-reviewed publication has achieved clear, widespread acceptance as correct before the deadline. This description was generated by AI. Review and verify everything here yourself. You can edit, replace, or delete any part of this description, including the resolution criteria. You do not need to trust the AI output.
The probability rose 8.0 percentage points over the last 24 hours (71.7% → 79.7%).
No verified catalyst has been linked to this move yet. ProbCast does not attribute moves to news without evidence connecting the timing of a specific report to the repricing.
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 30, 10:23 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±31 pts.
The price is actively repricing on real volume. The number is still moving — don't treat the latest print as settled consensus yet.
Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
Secondary read: leaning toward Stale price.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.