Will the Riemann Hypothesis be solved before 2030?

Resolution criteria This market resolves to YES if a valid proof or counterexample of the Riemann Hypothesis accepted by the global mathematical community before January 1, 2030. Otherwise, the market resolves to NO. Specifically, "solved" is defined by either of the following occurring on or before December 31, 2029 (11:59 PM UTC): The Clay Mathematics Institute (CMI) formally awards the Millennium Prize for the Riemann Hypothesis or officially announces on its website (claymath.org) that the problem has been solved. A paper proving or disproving the Riemann Hypothesis is published in a peer-reviewed academic journal, and a broad consensus of the global mathematics community (as reported by major scientific bodies or reputable scientific outlets like the International Mathematical Union, Nature, or Science) accepts the proof as correct. Edge Cases & Timing: If a proposed solution is published close to the 2030 deadline and the mathematical community is still actively reviewing it without a clear consensus, the market creator may delay resolution for up to six months (until July 1, 2030) to allow for verification. If no consensus is reached by this extension date, the market will resolve to NO. An unvetted preprint (e.g., on arXiv) without peer-reviewed publication or general community acceptance by the deadline will not suffice for a YES resolution. Background The Riemann Hypothesis, first proposed by Bernhard Riemann in 1859, is widely considered the most important unsolved problem in pure mathematics. It asserts that all non-trivial zeros of the Riemann zeta function $\zeta(s)$ have a real part equal to $1/2$. A solution would have profound implications for number theory, particularly regarding the distribution of prime numbers. In 2000, the Clay Mathematics Institute designated the Riemann Hypothesis as one of the seven Millennium Prize Problems, offering a $1 million reward for its solution. Under CMI's official rules, a proposed solution cannot be submitted directly; it must be published in a qualifying peer-reviewed journal of worldwide repute and undergo a minimum two-year waiting period to receive general acceptance from the global mathematics community before CMI will formally award the prize. This market permits a YES resolution even if the formal CMI prize has not yet been awarded by January 1, 2030, provided that a peer-reviewed publication has achieved clear, widespread acceptance as correct before the deadline. This description was generated by AI. Review and verify everything here yourself. You can edit, replace, or delete any part of this description, including the resolution criteria. You do not need to trust the AI output.