ManifoldPlay moneyOtherLikely noiseUpdated 11m ago

Will the new Elder Scrolls game have Sentinel in the name?

As of Nov 3, 2026, 2:17 PM ET, Manifold priced this market at 94.4% (up from 74.7% 24 hours earlier). It had 510 mana traded in the past 24 hours and 100 mana of pool liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as weak.

Market probability
94.4%
+19.6 percentage points
over 24 hours74.7% → 94.4%
Moving fastBig move, weak backing

Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — thin market where small orders can move the price — but today's move came mostly from one account.

Price historyManifold

Source: Manifold price history

How credible was the move?

Methodology →

Move validity

Weak

Consensus stability

Forming

Contract clarity

High

Can you trust this price?

Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.

Market capacity

How hard is it to move this price?

Thin

Pool liquidity

100 mana

Bid-ask spread

n/a

automated market maker

24h volume

510 mana

Total volume

526 mana

Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.

Who's trading

Whose opinion is this price?

One account dominates
95%of the traded money came from the single largest account

Accounts

5

Trades

7

over 3 days

Largest order

500 mana

526 mana traded across these 7 trades (last 3 days).

One account did most of the recent trading — the price reflects that account's view more than a crowd's.

Recent trade activity$526 traded

From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.

What this market actually measures

Resolution criteria This market resolves to YES if Bethesda or Microsoft officially announces or publishes the full title of the next mainline The Elder Scrolls game (commonly referred to as The Elder Scrolls VI), and that official title contains the standalone word "Sentinel" (case-insensitive, e.g., The Elder Scrolls VI: Sentinel). This market resolves to NO if: Bethesda Softworks or Microsoft officially reveals an…

This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.

View full official resolution rules

Resolution criteria This market resolves to YES if Bethesda or Microsoft officially announces or publishes the full title of the next mainline The Elder Scrolls game (commonly referred to as The Elder Scrolls VI), and that official title contains the standalone word "Sentinel" (case-insensitive, e.g., The Elder Scrolls VI: Sentinel). This market resolves to NO if: Bethesda Softworks or Microsoft officially reveals an official title that does not include the word "Sentinel". No official title announcement is made by Bethesda Softworks or Microsoft by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM PT. Official sources of truth include announcements on Bethesda.net, the official Bethesda YouTube channel, Xbox Wire, or direct official Bethesda/Xbox social media communications. Leaks, insider reports, or trademark filings without official confirmation do not count. Background Bethesda first teased The Elder Scrolls VI in June 2018 without an official subtitle. In late October 2026, reporting from The Verge indicated that Bethesda was preparing an official name reveal scheduled around November 2026, coinciding with the 15th anniversary of The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim. The reports stated the game is titled The Elder Scrolls VI: Sentinel and is set in the Hammerfell region. Sentinel is a prominent coastal kingdom and city situated along the Iliac Bay in Hammerfell lore. This description was generated by AI. Review and verify everything here yourself. You can edit, replace, or delete any part of this description, including the resolution criteria. You do not need to trust the AI output.

Why the odds moved

The probability rose 19.6 percentage points over the last 24 hours (74.7% → 94.3%).

No verified catalyst has been linked to this move yet. ProbCast does not attribute moves to news without evidence connecting the timing of a specific report to the repricing.

What could move this market next?

  • The market's deadline arrivesDecember 1, 2026 at 1:59 AM ET

    The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.

Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Nov 3, 2:28 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.

Advanced analysis (experimental)

Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±31 pts.

Reacting to newsLegacy movement classifier: noisy

What's happening

high classifier confidence
Reacting to news

The price is actively repricing on real volume. The number is still moving — don't treat the latest print as settled consensus yet.

  • Probability moved 19.6 pts in ≤6h on adequate liquidity

Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.

More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
0Low
Where the price path tends to go next368 observed
  • Illiquid / quiet99%

Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.

DurabilityLow· half-life ~3h
PredictabilityElevated irreducibility

Secondary read: leaning toward One big trader.

A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.

Change (pts)1H0.06H+19.624H+19.67D+19.6

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