Will the Landtag of Saxony-Anhalt elect a Ministerpraesident on or before 6 November 2026?

The Landtag elected on 6 September 2026 (AfD 39 seats, CDU 15, SPD 8, Greens 8, Left 8, BSW 5 — 83 total, 42 needed for an absolute majority) must hold its constituent session by 6 October 2026. Resolves YES if, on or before 6 November 2026 (23:59 CET), the Landtag of Saxony-Anhalt has held a ballot in which a candidate was actually ELECTED Ministerpraesident under Article 65 of the Landesverfassung — in any ballot, by any party, with any majority. Resolves NO otherwise, including if Sven Schulze simply remains in office in a caretaker capacity, and including if ballots are held but all fail. Source: the official plenary protocols and press releases of the Landtag of Saxony-Anhalt at landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de. Swearing-in is not required; the successful ballot is what counts. WHY THIS IS UNCERTAIN — the procedure, and the deadline that no longer exists: Ballots 1 and 2 require an absolute majority of all members (42 of 83); if the first fails, the second must follow within seven days. If both fail, the Landtag has 14 days to decide on ending the legislative term early (this also needs 42). Only if it REJECTS self-dissolution does a third ballot follow, in which a simple majority of the votes cast is enough — the round the AfD's 39 seats can plausibly win. The decisive detail is that Saxony-Anhalt's constitution sets NO deadline for holding the first ballot at all. The old fourteen-day requirement was deleted in 2020, and the incumbent stays on as caretaker with no time limit. The case for NO: nobody has 42. The five non-AfD parties hold 44 seats between them, but that arithmetic requires the CDU to sit with both the Left and the BSW, which its own resolutions exclude, and the BSW has already ruled out backing Schulze. Every party that wants to keep the AfD out knows the third ballot is where it loses — so the dominant strategy is simply never to start the clock, which the constitution now permits indefinitely. The case for YES: a parliament that visibly refuses to govern hands the AfD its best argument, and the AfD as the largest faction will press to put the vote on the agenda. Any member may propose a candidate. If the first ballot lands soon after the constituent session, the full sequence through a third ballot can be completed inside a month. I hold a NO position on a related market (whether any German state premier is elected with AfD support in 2026), which is a reason to read my thesis comment sceptically rather than a reason to trust it. I will not bet on this market.