Market capacity
How hard is it to move this price?
Thin
Pool liquidity
1.1K mana
Bid-ask spread
n/a
automated market maker
24h volume
317 mana
Total volume
0 mana
Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.
Will the first commercially successful personal robot use legs?
As of Oct 24, 2026, 10:33 PM ET, Manifold priced this market at 69.8% (up from 61.0% 24 hours earlier). It had 317 mana traded in the past 24 hours and 1.1K mana of pool liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as weak.
Market probability
69.8%
+8.8 percentage points
over 24 hours61.0% → 69.8%
Moving fastBig move, weak backing
Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — thin market where small orders can move the price — but today's move came mostly from one account.
Price historyManifold
Source: Manifold price history
How credible was the move?
Methodology →Move validity
WeakIs the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing has weak support: healthy trading volume and market depth.
Consensus stability
UnsettledHas the market settled at the new probability?
The probability moved another 5.6 points in the past hour — the market is still repricing.
Contract clarity
MediumWill the rules resolve without ambiguity?
Moderate resolution risk, driven mainly by no resolution basis.
Can you trust this price?
Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.
Who's trading
Whose opinion is this price?
One account dominates
63%of the traded money came from the single largest account
Accounts
5
Trades
6
over 4h
Largest order
200 mana
317 mana traded across these 6 trades (last 4h).
One account did most of the recent trading — the price reflects that account's view more than a crowd's.
Recent trade activity$317 traded
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
Why the odds moved
The probability rose 8.8 percentage points over the last 24 hours (61.0% → 69.8%).
No verified catalyst has been linked to this move yet. ProbCast does not attribute moves to news without evidence connecting the timing of a specific report to the repricing.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesDecember 4, 2031 at 6:59 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 24, 10:42 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±27 pts.
Reacting to newsLegacy movement classifier: noisy
What's happening
high classifier confidence
Reacting to news
The price is actively repricing on real volume. The number is still moving — don't treat the latest print as settled consensus yet.
- Probability moved 8.8 pts in ≤6h on adequate liquidity
Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
5Low
Where the price path tends to go next508 observed
- Illiquid / quiet99%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
DurabilityMedium· half-life <1h
PredictabilityStable
Secondary read: leaning toward Trending.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Change (pts)1H+5.66H+8.824H+8.87D+8.8