Market capacity
How hard is it to move this price?
Thin
Pool liquidity
100 mana
Bid-ask spread
n/a
automated market maker
24h volume
104.8 mana
Total volume
104.8 mana
Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.
Will the Ethereum staking deposit contract hold 92.75M ETH or more on October 31, 2026?
As of Oct 20, 2026, 6:24 PM ET, Manifold priced this market at 80.0% (up from 40.0% 24 hours earlier). It had 104.8 mana traded in the past 24 hours and 100 mana of pool liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as weak.
Market probability
80.0%
+40 percentage points
over 24 hours40.0% → 80.0%
Moving fastBig move, weak backing
Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — thin market where small orders can move the price; we can't yet see which accounts drove today's move.
Price historyManifold
Source: ProbCast snapshots (Manifold)
How credible was the move?
Methodology →Move validity
WeakIs the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing has weak support: moderate trading volume.
Consensus stability
FormingHas the market settled at the new probability?
Movement has slowed (40 points over six hours) but the market has not fully settled.
Contract clarity
HighWill the rules resolve without ambiguity?
The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
Can you trust this price?
Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.
Who's trading
Whose opinion is this price?
Participation data isn't captured for this market yet.
Participation data isn't captured for this market yet, so we can't say how many accounts set this price.
What this market actually measures
Resolves YES if the ETH balance of the Ethereum staking deposit contract, 0x00000000219ab540356cBB839Cbe05303d7705Fa, is 92,750,000 ETH or more at the last block with a timestamp at or before 23:59:59 UTC on October 31, 2026. Otherwise NO.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Resolves YES if the ETH balance of the Ethereum staking deposit contract, 0x00000000219ab540356cBB839Cbe05303d7705Fa, is 92,750,000 ETH or more at the last block with a timestamp at or before 23:59:59 UTC on October 31, 2026. Otherwise NO. Source: the balance shown on Etherscan, https://etherscan.io/address/0x00000000219ab540356cBB839Cbe05303d7705Fa, checked against eth_getBalance for that block on a public archive RPC (e.g. https://eth.drpc.org). If the two disagree, the RPC value wins. Why "on" and "by" are the same here: the deposit contract has no withdrawal function. Validator withdrawals and exits are paid by the beacon chain, not out of this contract, so its balance only ever goes up. Once it crosses 92.75M it stays there. Context (my own RPC reads, block 26,130,844, Oct 6 2026 ~04:00 UTC): now: 91,722,452 ETH 30 days earlier: 90,595,422 (+37.6k ETH/day) 90 days earlier: 87,811,657 (about 50k/day in July–August, slowing since) last 7 days: about +33.6k/day Reaching 92.75M needs about +1.03M ETH in ~25.8 days, roughly 39.8k ETH/day: right around the recent pace. I will not trade in this market.
Why the odds moved
The probability rose 40.0 percentage points over the last 24 hours (40.0% → 80.0%).
No verified catalyst has been linked to this move yet. ProbCast does not attribute moves to news without evidence connecting the timing of a specific report to the repricing.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesOctober 31, 2026 at 8:00 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 20, 6:31 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±31 pts.
Reacting to newsLegacy movement classifier: noisy
What's happening
high classifier confidence
Reacting to news
The price is actively repricing on real volume. The number is still moving — don't treat the latest print as settled consensus yet.
- Probability moved 40.0 pts in ≤6h on adequate liquidity
Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
2Low
Where the price path tends to go next617 observed
- Illiquid / quiet97%
- Choppy / mean-reverting1%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
DurabilityMedium· half-life ~2h
PredictabilityElevated irreducibility
Secondary read: leaning toward Thin market.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Change (pts)1H0.06H+40.024H+40.07D+40.0
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