As of Oct 23, 2026, 11:32 PM ET, Manifold priced this market at 61.4% (little changed over 24 hours). It had 1K mana of pool liquidity.
Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — the venue's feed doesn't report liquidity for this market — though most recent trading came from one account.
Source: Manifold price history
Is the move backed by real trading and depth?
This venue reports too little volume or book data for this market to judge the trading behind the price.
Has the market settled at the new probability?
The probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.
Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?
The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.
How hard is it to move this price?
Pool liquidity
1K mana
Bid-ask spread
n/a
automated market maker
24h volume
0 mana
Total volume
262 mana
Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.
Whose opinion is this price?
Accounts
4
Trades
5
over 20h
Largest order
200 mana
262 mana traded across these 5 trades (last 20h).
One account did most of the recent trading — the price reflects that account's view more than a crowd's.
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
Resolves YES if this ballot initiative passes on the November 2026 general election ballot in Denver, Colorado. It does not matter if the action ultimately goes into effect.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
Resolves YES if this ballot initiative passes on the November 2026 general election ballot in Denver, Colorado. It does not matter if the action ultimately goes into effect. A simple majority of 50% + 1 vote is needed to pass. Resolves No if it does not pass in the November 3rd 2026 election. Resolves N/a if the initiative is removed from ballot or votes are not counted. Text On Ballot: The ballot title for Prohibit Force-Feeding Birds and Sale of Foie Gras and Other Fattened Bird Liver Products Initiative is as follows: “ Shall the voters of the City and County of Denver adopt an ordinance prohibiting the force-feeding of birds and, in connection therewith, prohibiting the sale of products derived from force-feeding birds, including foie gras? What the vote means: A "yes" vote supports prohibiting the force-feeding of birds to enlarge their livers and banning the commercial sale, distribution, importation, transportation, and receipt of products derived from force-fed birds, including foie gras, in Denver. A "no" vote opposes prohibiting the force-feeding of birds to enlarge their livers and banning the commercial sale, distribution, importation, transportation, and receipt of products derived from force-fed birds, including foie gras, in Denver. From Ballotpedia
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 24, 1:17 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±21 pts.
Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.
Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
Secondary read: leaning toward Stale price.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.