Market capacity
How hard is it to move this price?
Thin
Pool liquidity
100 mana
Bid-ask spread
n/a
automated market maker
24h volume
83.6 mana
Total volume
406.3 mana
Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.
Will the 2026 Texas Senate race be the most expensive Senate race in history
As of Oct 21, 2026, 10:36 AM ET, Manifold priced this market at 35.0% (up from 18.1% 24 hours earlier). It had 83.6 mana traded in the past 24 hours and 100 mana of pool liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as weak.
Market probability
35.0%
+16.9 percentage points
over 24 hours18.1% → 35.0%
Moving fastBig move, weak backing
Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — thin market where small orders can move the price — today's move came from a small group of accounts.
Price historyManifold
Source: Manifold price history
How credible was the move?
Methodology →Move validity
WeakIs the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing has weak support: moderate trading volume.
Consensus stability
StableHas the market settled at the new probability?
The probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.
Contract clarity
HighWill the rules resolve without ambiguity?
The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
Can you trust this price?
Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.
Who's trading
Whose opinion is this price?
A few accounts
32%of the traded money came from the single largest account
Accounts
8
Trades
41
over 68 days
Largest order
54.3 mana
388.9 mana traded across these 41 trades (last 68 days).
A small group of accounts did most of the trading — neither one whale nor a broad crowd.
Recent trade activity$388.9 traded
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
The 2026 Texas Senate race has drawn national attention after the state set a national record for the most expensive Senate primary in U.S. history, with advertising spending alone exceeding $128 million.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
The 2026 Texas Senate race has drawn national attention after the state set a national record for the most expensive Senate primary in U.S. history, with advertising spending alone exceeding $128 million. The race features Republican candidate and current Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, who defeated four-term incumbent Senator John Cornyn in a highly contested Republican runoff, facing off against Democratic nominee and state Representative James Talarico. Both candidates have raised substantial funds: Talarico shattered national first-quarter fundraising records by pulling in $27 million, while super PACs on both sides have injected tens of millions of dollars into the contest. For context, the 2024 Ohio Senate race currently holds the record for the most expensive overall U.S. Senate election in history, with $483.4 million spent in total
Why the odds moved
The probability rose 16.9 percentage points over the last 24 hours (18.1% → 35.0%).
No verified catalyst has been linked to this move yet. ProbCast does not attribute moves to news without evidence connecting the timing of a specific report to the repricing.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesNovember 3, 2026 at 6:59 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 21, 10:46 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±28 pts.
Thin marketLegacy movement classifier: noisy
What's happening
medium classifier confidence
Thin market
Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.
- Thin book and/or wide spread.
Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
1Low
Where the price path tends to go next596 observed
- Illiquid / quiet98%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
DurabilityMedium· half-life ~6h
PredictabilityElevated irreducibility
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Change (pts)1H0.06H0.024H+16.97D+16.9