Market prices a 14.0% chance of “Will susvent reach Candidate Master on Codeforces by his birthday (June 19, 2027)” — little changed over 24 hours
Original Manifold title: “Will susvent reach Candidate Master on Codeforces by his birthday (June 19, 2027)?”
Too little market data to assess this move — treat the probability with caution.
This venue reports too little volume or book data for this market to judge the trading behind the price.
What this market actually measures
Resolution criteria This market will resolve to YES if the Codeforces user susvent achieves an official rating of 1900 or higher (the minimum threshold for the Candidate Master rank) in any rated contest that finishes and has its rating changes finalized on or before June 19, 2027, at 11:59 PM UTC. Otherwise, this market will resolve to NO.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Resolution criteria This market will resolve to YES if the Codeforces user susvent achieves an official rating of 1900 or higher (the minimum threshold for the Candidate Master rank) in any rated contest that finishes and has its rating changes finalized on or before June 19, 2027, at 11:59 PM UTC. Otherwise, this market will resolve to NO. Source of Truth: The official Codeforces profile page for susvent. Timing and Finalization: The rating change must be officially published and finalized on the user's Codeforces profile before the deadline. If a contest takes place before the deadline but its rating calculations are delayed and finalized on or after June 19, 2027, at 11:59 PM UTC, that contest's rating update will not count. Background On the competitive programming platform Codeforces, users are assigned ranks and divisions based on an Elo-like rating system. The Candidate Master rank represents a highly competitive tier, requiring a rating between 1900 and 2099. This market tracks whether the user susvent can reach the 1900 rating threshold by their birthday on June 19, 2027. This description was generated by AI. Review and verify everything here yourself. You can edit, replace, or delete any part of this description, including the resolution criteria. You do not need to trust the AI output.
How credible was the move?
Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →
Move validity
Is the move backed by real trading and depth?
This venue reports too little volume or book data for this market to judge the trading behind the price.
Consensus stability
Has the market settled at the new probability?
The probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.
Contract clarity
Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?
The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesJune 18, 2027 at 7:59 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Aug 7, 6:28 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±21 pts.
What's happening
Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.
Market data
24h volume
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