Will SpaceX valuation drop by -50% or more from its ATH?
Not enough price history for this range yet.
Source: ProbCast snapshots (Manifold)
This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 56.7%.
- Final market price
- 56.7%
- Event deadline
- June 12, 2027 at 12:00 AM ET
- Probability 24 hours before event deadline
- 56.7%
- Probability seven days before event deadline
- 56.7%
- Venue status
- resolved
ProbCast Reliability Summary
Will SpaceX valuation drop by -50% or more from its ATH? The final Manifold price was 56.7%. This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 56.7%.
- Market data as of
- July 27, 2026 at 12:46 PM ET
- ProbCast assessment generated
- October 21, 2026 at 4:40 AM ET
- Source
- Manifold
- Event deadline
- June 12, 2027 at 12:00 AM ET
- Market status
- Resolved
- Data updated
- 86d ago
What this market actually measures
Resolves Yes if SpaceX drops 50% or more from it's ATH, within one year of IPO. Currently that is $228.74 on Hyperliquid, https://app.hyperliquid.xyz/trade/xyz:SPCX.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Resolves Yes if SpaceX drops 50% or more from it's ATH, within one year of IPO. Currently that is $228.74 on Hyperliquid, https://app.hyperliquid.xyz/trade/xyz:SPCX. So this would resolve Yes, if it falls to $114.37. This calculation will change if SpaceX reaches new ATHs. If Hyperliquid is not available, Binance will be used.