Will South Dakota Amendment I (Medicaid expansion federal-funding trigger) be approved in the November 3, 2026 election?

This market resolves YES if South Dakota Amendment I (An Amendment to the South Dakota Constitution that Repeals Expanded Medicaid Coverage if Federal Funding for the Program Drops below 90%.) is approved by voters at the November 3, 2026 general election under its official approval rule: Simple majority of votes cast on the amendment (S.D. Const. art. XXIII) Only the November 3, 2026 vote counts; earlier votes on similar proposals do not. YES means voter approval at this election, not that the measure is later implemented. What the votes mean (official summary): YES: Adopts the amendment (AG pamphlet). NO: Leaves the Constitution as it is (AG pamphlet). Results: resolves on the result certified by South Dakota State Canvassing Board. It may resolve earlier once official returns or the Associated Press show the outcome cannot change and no recount is pending; if a recount or certified correction changes the outcome before resolution, the certified result controls. No vote: if the measure is removed from the ballot, a court orders its votes not to be counted, or the vote is postponed beyond November 3, 2026, the market resolves N/A. Later legal challenges: resolution follows voter approval as certified. A court later invalidating, enjoining or delaying the measure does not change the resolution. Starting probability: 50% is a neutral starting seed, not a forecast. Official source: https://sdsos.gov/elections-voting/upcoming-elections/general-information/2026%20Election%20Information/2026%20Ballot%20Question%20Information/2026%20Ballot%20Question%20Files/2026%20BQ/2026GeneralBQPamphletFINAL.pdf