Market capacity
How hard is it to move this price?
Thin
Pool liquidity
100 mana
Bid-ask spread
n/a
automated market maker
24h volume
127 mana
Total volume
162 mana
Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.
Will Singapore rank higher than Hong Kong in the 2026 Fraser Institute Economic Freedom of the World Index?
As of Oct 25, 2026, 1:13 AM ET, Manifold priced this market at 14.7% (down from 42.7% 24 hours earlier). It had 127 mana traded in the past 24 hours and 100 mana of pool liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as weak.
Market probability
14.7%
−28 percentage points
over 24 hours42.7% → 14.7%
Moving fastBig move, weak backing
Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — thin market where small orders can move the price — but today's move came mostly from one account.
Price historyManifold
Source: Manifold price history
How credible was the move?
Methodology →Move validity
WeakIs the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing has weak support: moderate trading volume.
Consensus stability
StableHas the market settled at the new probability?
The probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.
Contract clarity
HighWill the rules resolve without ambiguity?
The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
Can you trust this price?
Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.
Who's trading
Whose opinion is this price?
One account dominates
62%of the traded money came from the single largest account
Accounts
5
Trades
6
over 97 days
Largest order
100 mana
162 mana traded across these 6 trades (last 97 days).
One account did most of the recent trading — the price reflects that account's view more than a crowd's.
Recent trade activity$162 traded
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
Resolution criteria This market will resolve to YES if, in the Economic Freedom of the World: 2026 Annual Report published by the Fraser Institute, Singapore is ranked strictly higher (closer to 1st place) than Hong Kong. This market will resolve to NO if Hong Kong is ranked higher than Singapore, or if Singapore and Hong Kong are tied in the rankings.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Resolution criteria This market will resolve to YES if, in the Economic Freedom of the World: 2026 Annual Report published by the Fraser Institute, Singapore is ranked strictly higher (closer to 1st place) than Hong Kong. This market will resolve to NO if Hong Kong is ranked higher than Singapore, or if Singapore and Hong Kong are tied in the rankings. Key details: Source of truth: The official Economic Freedom of the World: 2026 Annual Report dataset or PDF published on the Fraser Institute Economic Freedom website. Report Specifics: This market refers specifically to the Fraser Institute index. It does not refer to the Heritage Foundation's Index of Economic Freedom. Timing: The Fraser Institute typically releases its annual report in September or October. The market will resolve as soon as the official 2026 report is published (and viewed by the creator of this proposition). If the 2026 report is not published by April 30, 2027, this market will resolve to N/A. Background The Fraser Institute’s Economic Freedom of the World index measures the degree to which the policies and institutions of jurisdictions support economic freedom, using a two-year data lag. Hong Kong and Singapore have historically held the top two spots in this ranking. In the Economic Freedom of the World: 2025 Annual Report (which analyzed 2023 data), Hong Kong ranked 1st with a score of 8.55, and Singapore ranked 2nd with a score of 8.50. Singapore briefly overtook Hong Kong for the first time in the 2023 report (using 2021 data), but Hong Kong has since reclaimed the top spot in subsequent reports. This description was generated by AI. Review and verify everything here yourself. You can edit, replace, or delete any part of this description, including the resolution criteria. You do not need to trust the AI output.
Why the odds moved
The probability fell 28.0 percentage points over the last 24 hours (42.7% → 14.7%).
No verified catalyst has been linked to this move yet. ProbCast does not attribute moves to news without evidence connecting the timing of a specific report to the repricing.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesDecember 31, 2026 at 6:59 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 25, 1:21 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±31 pts.
Thin marketLegacy movement classifier: noisy
What's happening
low classifier confidence
Thin market
Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.
- Thin book and/or wide spread.
Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
0Low
Where the price path tends to go next503 observed
- Illiquid / quiet99%
- Choppy / mean-reverting1%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
DurabilityMedium· half-life ~2h
PredictabilityElevated irreducibility
Secondary read: leaning toward One big trader.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Change (pts)1H0.06H0.024H-28.07D-28.0
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